What The Mandalorian & Grogu's Box Office Means For The Future Of Star Wars

Memorial Day weekend brought with it the first new "Star Wars" movie in nearly seven years, with "The Mandalorian and Grogu" serving as this year's big blockbuster on offer to moviegoers over the holiday. For Disney, it was an important moment, as it's the first "Star Wars" film since the pandemic shut down movie theaters all over the world in 2020. The industry has changed dramatically, so the future of a galaxy far, far away, in some ways, is riding on this film.

Directed by Jon Favreau, "The Mandalorian and Grogu" opened with an estimated $81.9 million over the weekend, with that number growing to $102 million when accounting for the Monday holiday. That is slightly less than 2018's "Solo: A Star Wars Story" ($84.4 million three-day/$103 million four-day), which also opened over Memorial Day weekend. "Solo" ultimately bombed at the box office, failing to cross $400 million globally against an outsized budget close to $300 million.

By contrast, "The Mandalorian and Grogu" was made for a reported net budget of $165 million, by far the cheapest in the franchise of the Disney era. Despite having a disappointing Rotten Tomatoes score for a "Star Wars" movie, currently sitting at 63%, the audience score is 88%, which ranks as the best of the Disney era. So, there is a bit of a disconnect going on between critics and viewers here, which works in Disney's favor and runs counter to what happened with "Solo."

In short, this film is working well for general folks, particularly younger fans, which means it figures to have much better legs than "Solo," positioning it as a winner for the studio. It's not going to be a $1 billion box office hit like "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story," but it doesn't need to be.

"The Mandalorian and Grogu" also earned $63 million overseas across the holiday, giving it a $165 million global debut. It's worth noting that "Star Wars" has never been nearly as popular internationally as it is in North America, for whatever reason.

Setting aside the "Star Wars" of it all, any Hollywood studio would take a $165 million opening against a budget of $165 million with a stellar audience reception, especially given the tremendous merchandising upside potential with this one. Taking into account the "Star Wars" of it all, many fans seem to be missing the point with "The Mandalorian and Grogu," which is that it works extremely well for younger viewers. For this franchise to endure, the next generation needs to love it in their own way. This movie is accomplishing that mission.

Aside from that, it was hard to know how a new "Star Wars" film would do in the pandemic era. So many things that worked in the 2010s don't work now. Recall that 2019's "The Rise of Skywalker" was the most complicated $1 billion hit in history and ended the sequel trilogy on a mixed note. Since then, "Star Wars" has stuck to TV, and that includes later seasons of "The Mandalorian." As such, it was hard to know if audiences would show up for "The Mandalorian and Grogu" in a meaningful way again.

The fact that this TV-show-turned-movie did as well as it did helps prove "Star Wars" is still viable. It's all relative. This film didn't suffer from a "We have 'The Mandalorian' at home" sentiment. Rather, it shows that this property's fans are motivated enough to turn up for a movie that requires a little homework to be fully invested in.

What "The Mandalorian and Grogu" does, more than anything, is provide a more flexible future for "Star Wars" on the big screen. It doesn't all have to bear the weight of something like "The Force Awakens" shouldering the burden of being one of the biggest movies ever. With the right budget, a variety of films in this universe can be viable moving forward. This was sort of the canary in the coal mine after a long break.

Sure, on paper, this movie's opening weekend might have looked better if "Star Wars" returned after a long break with another saga movie or something like that, with this coming out after. That's not how things went, though. All the same, met on its own terms, this film has proven successful enough and will likely have good legs. It could do numbers on part with "Attack of the Clones" ($80 million opening/$656 million worldwide), which was once a low-bar for "Star Wars" but now could be viewed as aspirational. Time has a way of changing things.

Next up, 2027's "Star Wars: Starfighter" will take the franchise somewhere new beyond the events of "The Rise of Skywalker." It's also being billed as a standalone adventure. What comes after? That remains up in the air. Maybe it will be the long-discussed Rey movie. Maybe it will be something else entirely. But again, what we know for certain now, though, is that "Star Wars," at least under the right circumstances, is still viable.

It's not going extinct like the Jedi Order after Palpatine executed Order 66. There's still gas in the tank, and Lucasfilm can go in a number of directions from here.

"The Mandalorian and Grogu" is in theaters now.