One Battle After Another Looks To End Warner Bros.' Hot Streak At The Box Office

Leonardo DiCaprio is one of the biggest stars in the world. Even though he's never been part of a big franchise, he's one of the top-grossing actors ever at the box office, thanks to starring in massive hits such as Christopher Nolan's "Inception" ($839 million worldwide) and his Oscar-winning role in "The Revenant" ($533 million worldwide). So, can DiCaprio help keep the hot streak alive for Warner Bros. this year when "One Battle After Another" hits theaters? Even for him, that's going to be a tall order.

Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson ("Boogie Nights"), "One Battle After Another" is currently expected to pull in between $20 and $30 million in its opening domestically when it debuts next weekend, per Box Office Theory. For a non-franchise movie that is nearly three hours long, that's not bad by modern standards, on the surface. The problem? It carries a whopping budget of at least $130 million before marketing. As such, Warner Bros. needs this one to make around $300 million worldwide to even begin to call it a success.

That being the case, it's going to need a lot of help from overseas audiences. Granted, DiCaprio is a big star whose movies tend to perform well internationally. Warner Bros. has had its last seven movies open to at least $40 million domestically, including "The Conjuring: Last Rites" ($194 million), which was a record for a horror movie. Unless these projections are very low, that streak is going to end next weekend.

The film centers on a washed-up revolutionary named Bob (DiCarpio) who is in a state of stoned paranoia, living off the grid with his daughter, Willa (Chase Infiniti). When his nemesis (Sean Penn) resurfaces after 16 years, Willa goes missing and Bob must scramble to find her. The film is loosely based on the novel "Vineland" by Thomas Pynchon. Benicio Del Toro ("Sicario"), Regina Hall ("Girls Trip"), and Teyana Taylor ("Coming 2 America") also star.

One thing working in the movie's favor is critical opinion. It currently holds a stellar 96% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. In his perfect 10/10 review of "One Battle After Another" for /Film, Chris Evangelista called it "the best movie of 2025." That's high praise, and Evangelista is not alone in his regard for Anderson's latest. Undoubtedly, WB has aspirations that this will be a major awards season player.

As for its commercial prospects? The odds of getting to $300 million worldwide even with a $30 million opening are tough. More often than not, in the pandemic era, an over/under $30 million opening is probably going to result in a global finish of around $150 million, with $200 million closer to a ceiling on average, roughly speaking. Think "Bob Marley: One Love" ($28.6 million opening/$181 million worldwide). Even in the best of times, opening to $30 million and hoping to get to $300 million or more globally is a big, big ask.

A good, recent comp might be "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" ($174 million worldwide/$168 million budget). Oddly, what Warner Bros. is probably hoping for is something closer to "Mad Max: Fury Road" ($379 million worldwide/$150 million budget), because even though "Fury Road" wasn't a big hit relative to its huge budget, it was a critical darling that has enjoyed a very long shelf life.

It's tough, from a business perspective, to justify giving such a big budget to a movie like this, especially when Anderson's biggest movie ever, "There Will Be Blood," made just $77 million globally. On the other hand, what Mike De Luca and Pam Abdy have done as the heads of Warner Bros. Pictures this year is beyond impressive. From "Sinners" to "F1," they've hit it out of the park at every turn. Flops from earlier in the year such as "Mickey 17" have been far outweighed by the hits.

In short, WB can afford to take a risky gamble on a very talented filmmaker, especially if it can go the distance at the Oscars. Still, in a worst-case scenario, if this opens closer to $20 million and doesn't have a lot of staying power, it's going to be hard to make it make financial sense. We'll have to see how it shakes out as the fall season unfolds.

"One Battle After Another" hits theaters on September 26, 2025.