5 Reasons Why Thunderbolts' Box Office Is A Step In The Right Direction For Marvel

Marvel helped kick off the summer movie season with "Thunderbolts*" in the first weekend of May. Though not exactly a smash by superhero standards, director Jake Schreier's entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe opened to $74.3 million domestically and just over $160 million globally. That left it on uncertain ground, with the film's fate to be determined in weekend two and beyond. Fortunately, things have continued to go reasonably well for Marvel Studios and Disney in the early going.

"Thunderbolts*" added an estimated $33.1 million in its second weekend, once again topping the domestic charts. That represents a 56% drop, which probably had more to do with a lack of competition, with IFC's YA slasher "Clown in a Cornfield," Lionsgate's "Shadow Force," and the plane thriller "Fight or Flight" serving as the weekend's only new releases. Those were never going to compete for the top spot. All the same, this allowed Marvel's latest to spend another weekend in the spotlight before stiff competition arrives to steal its thunder.

Internationally, the film also added another $34 million, giving it a global running total of $272.1 million through two weekends. It's still got a long way to go, but if it can avoid falling off a cliff when "Final Destination Bloodlines" arrives this upcoming weekend, then it'll be in pretty good shape. With that said, we're going to take a deeper look at why this is welcome news for Marvel and how the studio can use this movie to build positive momentum at the box office and put several rocky, uneven years behind it.

For starters, "Thunderbolts*" is showing signs of sustained buzz well beyond opening weekend. Case in point: It held far better than Marvel's "Captain America: Brave New World" did earlier this year after it opened to $88 million domestically. That was a fair amount more than "Thunderbolts*," yet still somewhat low by Marvel standards. However, in its second weekend, the film plunged a whopping 68% for a $28.1 million second weekend take.

"Brave New World" has all but finished its run at the box office with $415 million globally. Against a $180 million budget (before marketing and, quite possibly, before reshoots were factored in), it's going to lose money for Disney in its theatrical run. "Thunderbolts*," by contrast, has a $180 million budget and is poised to finish closer to $500 million globally at this point. If it can get to $550 million, give or take, it just might turn a profit in theaters before having to rely on VOD, streaming, etc.

On its current trajectory, Marvel and Disney will get to call this a qualified win. That's more than can be said for the likes of "Brave New World," "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania," "Eternals," and "The Marvels," unfortunately. It's a positive step forward.

Explaining the better hold for "Thunderbolts*" isn't rocket science, as critics and audiences alike have had a very favorable view of it, especially compared to some of the aforementioned MCU misfires in the post-"Endgame" era. Yes, the Multiverse Saga has had massive hits like "Spider-Man: No Way Home" ($1.92 billion) and "Deadpool & Wolverine" ($1.33 billion), but the misses and disappointments outweigh those successes. Before 2020, even Marvel's middling hits would be the envy of everyone else in Hollywood.

The common thread is that the movies that tapped into the energy of the MCU of old in the eyes of both critics and audiences have managed to do pretty well at the box office. "Thunderbolts*" currently holds an 88% critical rating on Rotten Tomatoes to go with a stellar 94% audience rating. That's translating to decent real-world buzz. The problem remains that certain fans have been turned off by middling entries such as "Brave New World," and Marvel has to work to win back the average moviegoer on a more regular basis.

That's precisely why Disney CEO Bob Iger labeled "Thunderbolts*" as the "first and best example" of Marvel's new quality over quantity strategy. No longer will Marvel Studios be flooding theaters with three movies per year arbitrarily alongside three or more shows on Disney+. It's about quality each time out. This movie can serve as a building block towards a better future.

It's absolutely no secret that production budgets have been a major, major issue in Hollywood over the last handful of years, in no small part thanks to the pandemic. That said, $200 million budgets becoming an accepted norm is an issue when fewer and fewer movies are making $600 million or more at the global box office. Pre-pandemic, Marvel Studios could make that kind of money without flinching. Now? Not so much. That's why "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" barely turned a profit against its massive budget.

Mind you, the third "Ant-Man" movie opened to $100 million before falling off a cliff in its second weekend. Again, reviews were an issue there. All of this to say, "Thunderbolts*" making its way to theaters with a $180 million price tag is helpful. It's got a big ensemble cast, doesn't skimp on the action, and looks like an MCU film should. Yet, it was $20 million cheaper than "Quantumania" and a whole lot cheaper than "The Marvels" ($270 million), the lowest-grossing MCU movie to date ($199.7 million worldwide).

A lower budget gets a movie to profitability more quickly. It's as simple as that. If this movie had cost $200 million, it would need another $40 million (give or take) in ticket sales to break even. That's a meaningful difference. Hopefully, Marvel can keep this up as the Phase 6 slate and beyond unfolds.

One of the biggest things when trying to quantify this movie's success and where the bar should be has to do with the fact that it's not a sequel or an extension of a previously existing, successful franchise within the realm of the MCU. In recent years, be it Marvel or DC, studios have had a brutal time launching new superhero properties. Marvel's recent hits have come inside of franchises that already worked, such as "Spider-Man," "Guardians of the Galaxy," and "Deadpool."

The only caveat is 2021's "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings," which earned $432 million worldwide in 2021, becoming a success relative to the terrible year brought on Hollywood by the pandemic. Mind you, we're still waiting on "Shang-Chi 2," but that's another conversation entirely. All of this is to say, "Thunderbolts*" getting to $500 million or more by using B-level MCU characters previously introduced in Disney+ shows and middlingly successful movies is pretty impressive, at least by 2025 standards.

One of the biggest surprises regarding "Thunderbolts*" is the fact that it's actually a "New Avengers" movie in disguise. This cannot be considered a spoiler at this point, as Marvel has unveiled a full marketing campaign, blanketing billboards and social media with the reveal. It was a clever marketing gimmick, but it's also an important caveat when we talk about this movie's bar for success at the box office.

The fact of the matter is that Marvel and Disney probably would have found more success out of the gate had they called this movie "New Avengers" from the jump. The "Avengers" films are all amongst the biggest movies in history, and that branding means something to audiences. Instead, the studios opted to go with the lesser-known "Thunderbolts*" and saved the surprise for opening weekend. What's clear now is that to whatever degree this movie finds success, it will have done so without the need for "Avengers" in the title, and that's perhaps the best thing that Marvel Studios can take forward into 2026 and beyond.

"Thunderbolts*" is in theaters now.