Don't Let The Box Office Fool You: Until Dawn Isn't A Flop

It was, all things considered, a substantial weekend at the box office. For the first time in a very long time, four different movies made $20 million or more on the same weekend, which seemed unthinkable during the worst moments of the early pandemic era. Unfortunately, Sony Pictures' video game film adaptation "Until Dawn," which takes its name from the beloved horror video game of the same name, was not one of those movies. All the same, let's hit the brakes before we call it a flop.

Director David F. Sandberg's "Until Dawn" had to settle for fifth place this weekend domestically with $8 million, with Ryan Coogler's' "Sinners" topping the box office charts with a stellar $45 million in its second frame. Behind that was the 20th anniversary re-release of "Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith" ($25.2 million), "The Accountant 2" ($24.4 million), and "A Minecraft Movie" ($22.7 million). Only then do we get to Sandberg's latest, which marks his return to the horror genre after he directed both "Shazam!" movies for Warner Bros. and DC.

On the surface, an $8 million debut for a potential franchise starter based on a popular video game seems like a disaster. However, it most certainly isn't in this case. For one, overseas audiences showed up to the tune of $10.1 million, giving the film an $18.1 million global start. More important than that, Sony kept the budget extremely reasonable at just $15 million. Even accounting for the marketing campaign, that's a very thrifty investment for something that comes with a built-in audience.

Granted, "Until Dawn" the movie diverts greatly from the video game, but it does cleverly tie into the source material. In any event, unless it completely falls off a cliff in the coming weeks, this one still has a shot at breaking even in theaters — assuming it can get to just over or under $45 million, give or take. That's not out of reach, depending on how word of mouth goes.

"Until Dawn" follows its young protagonist Clover (Ella Rubin) as she, along with her friends, heads into the remote valley where her sister vanished a year ago in search of answers. Exploring an abandoned visitor center, they're murdered one by one. The twist? They wake up and find themselves alive again as they start the night over. Unfortunately, they're forced to relive the night over and over after that, only to find themselves facing a different threat each time. The only way to escape for good is to survive ... until dawn.

Admittedly, critics have been mixed on the adaptation, with audiences having a slightly more favorable view. It currently holds a 52% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes to go with a 69% audience rating. Meanwhile, /Film's Bill Bria was high on "Until Dawn," writing in his review for us that it wishes "to do nothing more than put on a good horror show." For now, though, it's unclear how well (or poorly) the movie will hold as the summer season heats up.

At the end of the day, even if next weekend's drop is severe, Sony will absolutely make its money back on "Until Dawn" between VOD and streaming. Heck, even just bringing more attention to the original game might make this worth it. Playing with lower budget genre pictures like this is good business. It's the reason I argued A24's "Death of a Unicorn" was worth a shot, even though it didn't pan out. In the franchise space, such low risk/high reward prospects are even more sorely needed.

Video game movies are becoming the next big gold rush in Hollywood. Just look at what's going on with "A Minecraft Movie." But it can't all be stuff like "Borderlands," which was a colossal flop against its massive $115 million budget. Instead, giving guys like Sandberg the chance to do something bold with established IP, albeit at a lower price tag, feels like a winning strategy. Not everything needs to be a blockbuster. Would Sony have liked to see this movie open better? Of course, but calling it a flop is downright irresponsible. This one will be fine and might even become a modest hit. That's far from a misfire.

"Until Dawn" is in theaters now.