What Will Be The Biggest Summer Movie At The Box Office In 2025?

The 2025 summer movie season is nearly upon us, and it's quite stacked. The first quarter of the year had its ups and downs, but mostly, it was disappointments littering the road as Hollywood faced another rough start in the pandemic era. Fortunately, things have turned around in recent weeks, with the likes of "A Minecraft Movie" and "Sinners" posting big numbers. But now we ask the question: What will come out on top and be the biggest movie of the summer? There are plenty of options and no easy answers.

Marvel's "Thunderbolts" is due to kick the summer season off with a $70 million, give or take, opening the first weekend of May. That's going to be much better than "The Fall Guy" ($28 million) last year, but it's also far below the MCU blockbusters of pre-2020, which would sail to $100 million domestically without blinking. Marvel also has "Fantastic Four: First Steps" in July, but in both cases, we're not looking at something as certain as last year's "Deadpool & Wolverine." Marvel may bounce back a bit this summer, but they're unlikely to come out on top.

So, what about DC? James Gunn's "Superman" is one of the most hotly-anticipated movies of the summer, and Warner Bros. has an absolutely insane amount riding on it. But the Man of Steel has never been quite as big as Batman at the box office. While we should never count out the man who made "Guardians of the Galaxy" into a multi-billion-dollar franchise, Vegas odds on this one winning the summer probably aren't the highest.

Outside of the superhero realm, the possibilities are many and far-ranging. We have big horror movies such as "Final Destination: Bloodlines" and "28 Years Later." We have huge family-friendly, live-action remakes such as "How to Train Your Dragon" and "Lilo & Stitch." Both of those wouldn't be bad bets, and under the exact right circumstances, could be $1 billion hits. Strong emphasis on could, but let's not pretend it's impossible. If "Mufasa: The Lion King" can limp to $722 million worldwide after a rough opening weekend, it feels silly to be against these potential crowd-pleasers.

Speaking of impossible, let's not forget that Tom Cruise is leading "Misson: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" in late May. "Dead Reckoning" was hampered greatly by the Barbenheimer phenomenon, but Paramount won't face such hurdles this time around. Even so, the franchise is far removed from the highs of "Fallout." So we're looking at a big movie but probably not the biggest.

If one had to place money on it at this point in time, the safest bet would most likely be "Jurassic World Rebirth." Directed by Gareth Edwards ("Rogue One," "Godzilla) with a brand new cast led by Scarlett Johansson ("Black Widow"), this promises a new star for the "Jurassic" franchise, which has generated $6 billion globally with six movies across more than 30 years. Even the not-well-liked "Dominion" is one of fewer than 10 movies to make $1 billion or more in the pandemic era. There is simply consistent love for this series.

Granted, "Dominion" may have lost some viewers, but "Rebirth" is promising a new start. This feels like the most certain $1 billion earner worldwide of the bunch, especially if Edwards was able to right the ship critically. There are certainly dark horses too, from "Freakier Friday" to "Karate Kid: Legends," but dinosaurs figure to once again rule the Earth. 

What seems clear is that there is a strong, varied slate on deck this summer. Every audience member has something to look forward to and, with any luck, theaters won't just be relying on the next "Inside Out 2" to save the day. There are several likely big hits in the mix here. That's a very good thing. That's a win on a grander scale. So grab the popcorn, take a seat, and see how it all unfolds in the coming months.

We spoke more about this on today's episode of the /Film Daily podcast:

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