Ryan Coogler's Horror Movie Sinners Is A Big Box Office Gamble - Will It Pay Off?

Few directors working today can rival Ryan Coogler in terms of sheer impact. Coogler helped turn Marvel's "Black Panther" into a generationally important hit, one that transcended the superhero genre to become a defining blockbuster for the ages. He also successfully revived the "Rocky" franchise with "Creed." But Coogler, reteaming with actor Michael B. Jordan, is finally returning to the realm of original cinema with "Sinners." It's a horror movie, and the genre is hot right now, but it's also very expensive. Can Coogler's big-budget vampire flick become a big enough hit to justify its cost? That's the question.

As it stands, "Sinners" is looking at a domestic opening weekend in the $30 to $40 million range, per Box Office Theory. That number is right in line with earlier tracking, which had the movie making $40 million in its debut. For most horror movies, that would be stellar news. This is, however, a unique case. Warner Bros. made a $90 million deal to acquire the rights to distribute this one. Unfortunately, it appears as though the budget climbed closer to $100 million.

Part of the reason horror is so attractive to Hollywood is that these movies can be made on the cheap. It's a low risk/high reward proposition. In this case, a $100 million budget (before marketing) puts it firmly in blockbuster territory. That means we're probably looking at a movie that needs to make somewhere in the neighborhood of $300 million globally to break even at the box office. That's a tall order.

Mind you, these tracking numbers were largely put forth before the reactions to "Sinners" started arriving online, which have been mostly glowing. If paying members of the moviegoing public agree with critics here, word of mouth could carry this movie well above that $40 million mark. More importantly, it could carry the movie for weeks to come, which will be needed in light of the eye-popping price tag.

The film centers on twin brothers (both played by Jordan) who are trying to leave their troubled lives behind. They return to their hometown to start anew and find that a terrible evil is waiting to welcome them back. Vampire shenanigans ensue. The cast also includes the likes of Hailee Steinfeld ("Bumblebee"), Jack O'Connell ("Ferrari"), Wunmi Mosaku ("Passenger"), Jayme Lawson ("The Woman King"), Omar Miller ("True Lies"), and Delroy Lindo ("Da 5 Bloods").

"Black Panther" made more than $1.3 billion at the box office and earned a Best Picture nomination. Coogler's name means something. Jordan's name means something. That's good. The problem? Expensive horror movies rarely work out, with something like "World War Z" (which made $540 million worldwide on a $190 million budget) serving as a relatively rare exception to the rule.

The other issue here is that vampire movies tend not to do well, particularly in recent years, with "Renfield," "The Last Voyage of the Demeter," and "Abigail" all serving as disappointments. "Nosferatu" ($181 million worldwide) was able to succeed, but because its budget was only $50 million. The good news for Coogler and company, aside from the great critical buzz so far, is that a $40 million opening would set the film up for success. "Alien: Romulus" opened to $42 million last year en route to $350 million worldwide. In a best-case scenario, this can work. And if anyone is capable of delivering a best-case scenario, it's the combination of Coogler and Jordan.

"Sinners" hits theaters on April 18, 2025.