Trumps Tariffs Might Be Coming For The Box Office – Does Hollywood Need To Worry?

Just as things were starting to look up at the box office, Hollywood may have just hit another massive roadblock. President Donald Trump has been unleashing a wave of tariffs on countries all around the world, with China getting hit particularly hard. The political strategy has created tensions between the U.S. and other countries as a trade war looms. The Chinese government, in response, might even block Hollywood movies from playing in the country entirely.

In a recent report from Bloomberg, it's explained that two very influential Chinese bloggers shared details regarding measures Chinese officials may take in response to Trump's tariffs. This list includes a "ban on Hollywood movies." While Hollywood films haven't made nearly as much money in China in the pandemic era, the country has a massive moviegoing audience. Case in point, "Ne Zha 2" made more than $2 billion in China alone this year. Certain Hollywood movies would benefit greatly from even a fraction of that money.

As it stands, the 2025 domestic box office is lagging around 5% behind 2024 at this same point, even after "A Minecraft Movie" posted a record-breaking $314 million global opening. That is to say, exhibitors can ill-afford another setback after a tumultuous handful of years. Indeed, with the pandemic having closed theaters in 2020, plus the SAG and WGA strikes in 2023, the theatrical industry has already run into multiple destabilizing obstacles of late. Hollywood losing its already tenuous relationship with China would be yet another major blow.

In recent years, Chinese regulators have been putting an emphasis on homegrown titles like "The Battle at Lake Changjin," "The Wandering Earth," and "Hi, Mom," among others. This strategy has worked, as many of these movies have become massive hits without relying on other countries around the globe. This was also the case with "Ne Zha 2." That's largely why Hollywood can no longer depend on China to deliver robust box office returns like it once did.

Even so, not being able to depend on something and having it disappear entirely are two very different things. For example, last year's "Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire" made $571 million worldwide, with more than $132 million of that coming from ticket sales in China. "Alien: Romulus" similarly made $350 million around the globe, including a staggering $110 million in China. Even a mid-budget movie like "The Beekeeper" added just over $16 million to its total thanks to Chinese audiences. 

One caveat is that theaters generally keep around half of the money generated at the box office. When it comes to China, however, international taxes and other factors mean studios typically only see about 25% of that money. Still, an extra $4 million for a $40 million production like "The Beekeeper" is not insignificant by any stretch of the imagination. Hollywood losing the entirety of the Chinese marketplace would be huge at a time when every single dollar counts. Movies like James Cameron's "Avatar: Fire and Ash" have massive global appeal and would otherwise likely make a killing in China. Taking that money off the table is painful. 

No, studios shouldn't be budgeting movies while banking on robust Chinese ticket sales anymore, but sacrificing all of that money would be a financial blow to a massive industry. This could not only cost jobs, but it could also lead to a meaningful reduction in spending at studios, depending on how long this all drags out. In a worst-case scenario, it could even damage relations between Hollywood and China irreparably.

China isn't the only thing that might be hurting the box office sooner rather than later. Per Newsweek, a recent study conducted by The Budget Lab at Yale University suggested that the new tariffs could cost the average American household up to $4,200 per year. That is a meaningful amount of money for the vast majority of residents in the U.S.

At times of economic uncertainty, which these tariffs have undoubtedly brought upon the world, people tend to tighten down on spending. It's no secret that going to the movies isn't as cheap as it once was. Plus, movie tickets are only expected to get more expensive in the coming years, even before these tariffs hit. It seems highly likely that many people, particularly families, will be going to see films in theaters less while this is going on. If this trade war ultimately pushes us into a recession, that period of time could even stretch to years rather than months.

The big-picture problem is that movie theaters have been struggling to recover for a full five years ever since chains all around the world were forced to close their doors due to the pandemic. In other words, the film business was already struggling plenty before the looming trade war. This all seems to be creating a scenario where things could go from bad to worse for an industry that has had to weather a lot of bad  stuff in recent years.

With a strong summer slate coming down the pipeline, one can only hope that theater chains find a way to remain resilient in the face of another likely downturn. There's no need to start making alarmist predictions at this time, but in the short term, the outlook is not great.