Captain America: Brave New World On Track For $94 Million Presidents' Day Weekend

What better way to celebrate Presidents' Day weekend than with a movie where the president turns into a big red monster? "Captain America: Brave New World" has come out slightly ahead of earlier projections with a $40 million opening day (including previews), per The Wrap. That puts the latest Marvel Cinematic Universe movie on track to gross $94 million over the four-day holiday weekend, and $82 million over the Monday-to-Friday frame.

Compared to recent MCU offerings, that opening weekend is well behind last year's megahit "Deadpool & Wolverine" ($211 million). It also lags behind 2023's Presidents' Day weekend release "Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania," which grossed $106 million over the three-day opening and $120 million over four days (before dropping disastrously in its second weekend). On the plus side, "Brave New World" has landed far ahead of 2023's "The Marvels," which fizzled from the start with a $46 million debut.

"Captain America: Brave New World" had a lot of hurdles to overcome. The Captain America audiences have come to know, Chris Evans' Steve Rogers, gave up the title and shield at the end of "Avengers: Endgame" and is nowhere to be seen in this movie. To make matters worse, Anthony Mackie's Sam Wilson only officially became Captain America in the Disney+ TV series "The Falcon and the Winter Soldier," which a lot of casual audiences haven't seen. "Brave New World" also ran up against the kind of real-world politics that Marvel seems keen to avoid. One trailer, depicting the attempted assassination of President Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross (Harrison Ford) was recut following an assassination attempt against presidential candidate Donald Trump. The movie itself is releasing in a landscape of political turmoil following Trump's re-election. 

After substantial reshoots and a title change, the version of "Captain America: Brave New World" that has ended up on screens has left critics and audiences alike unimpressed. It received a B- CinemaScore from opening day audiences, the lowest score ever bestowed on an MCU movie ("Quantumania" and "The Marvels" both received B grades). Meanwhile, on Rotten Tomatoes, the movie is sitting at a score of 50% as of this writing.

Pinning down the budget for "Captain America: Brave New World" isn't easy. The official number for its production costs is $180 million, but there are rumors that the reshoots may have pushed it to $300 million or even more. Because of this uncertainty, it's difficult to say what the break-even point for the movie will be.

Though the opening weekend forecast for "Brave New World" falls short of the last two "Captain America" movies, an $82 million three-day opening weekend isn't disastrous. "Venom: The Last Dance" grossed $51 million in its debut last October and went on to eke a $478 million global total by the end of its run. But MCU movies specifically tend to be very front-loaded, and that trend, coupled with the poor critic and audience reception, means that "Captain America: Brave New World" could be in for a big second weekend drop.

One factor working in its favor is that Marvel Studios has cooled off its theatrical releases lately. "Deadpool & Wolverine" was last year's only big-screen MCU release, and that movie was still largely tied to Fox's "X-Men" universe, as well as being a meta-comedy that didn't seriously engage with MCU continuity. "Brave New World" is the first real return to the MCU's overarching storyline since 2023, and it's possible that the breathing room has allowed superhero fatigue to fade – at least a little.