Can Nosferatu Bring Vampires Back To Life At The Box Office This Christmas?

Robert Eggers bought himself instant star status in the horror world with his feature debut "The Witch" in 2016. Now, after taking a detour into the realm of big-budget, historical epic action with "The Northman," the acclaimed director is back with a new horror movie in the form of "Nosferatu," Eggers' long-awaited fresh take on F.W. Murnau's 1922 vampire classic. The question is, can this gothic vampire tale take a big enough bite out of the Christmas box office?

Focus Features' "Nosferatu" is currently eyeing an opening weekend between $12 and $16 million, per Box Office Theory. But that's only part of the equation here. The film is hitting theaters on Christmas Day, which falls on a Wednesday this year. Much like "Moana 2" did over its record-breaking five-day run over Thanksgiving, Eggers' latest will have a long holiday weekend to make its money. So, if we assume the film performs similarly well on Wednesday and Thursday, we should be easily looking at north of $20 million by the following Monday morning. To what degree overseas audiences will be interested? That's also a huge question mark. 

The real thing to pay attention to here is the fact that vampire movies have been box office poison as of late. Last year, Universal suffered two sizable flops with its Dracula movies "Renfield" and "The Last Voyage of the Demeter." Both very different takes on the legendary blood-sucker, but both also failed to connect with audiences. The studio released yet another vampire misfire earlier this year with "Abigail," which made just $42.7 million worldwide against a $28 million budget despite earning very solid reviews.

Granted, "Abigail" is finding new life now that it's on streaming, but that doesn't change the fact that vampires, it seems, are a tough sell for modern moviegoers. Or, at the very least, the vampires that have been on offer are not enough to motivate people to leave the house en masse. Maybe, just maybe, Eggers can change that narrative.

"Nosferatu" is described as a gothic tale of obsession between a haunted young woman and the terrifying vampire infatuated with her, causing untold horror in its wake. The stellar ensemble is led by Bill Skarsgård ("It") as Count Orlok, with Nicholas Hoult ("Juror #2"), Lily-Rose Depp ("The Idol"), Aaron Taylor-Johnson ("Kraven the Hunter"), Emma Corrin ("Deadpool & Wolverine"), and Willem Dafoe ("Spider-Man: No Way Home") rounding out the ensemble.

Another issue we've yet to discuss is the stiff competition over the holiday frame. Families should be largely focused on "Sonic the Hedgehog 3" and "Mufasa: The Lion King" during that same period. Also due to arrive on Christmas Day are A24's Oscar-favorite "Babygirl," James Mangold's Bob Dylan biopic "A Complete Unknown," and Amazon MGM's "The Fire Inside." That's a lot of options for prospective ticket buyers to choose from. The upside for Focus and Eggers is that January is fairly dry, meaning that all of these movies can continue to rake in returns well into the new year, optimism in place.

Focus Features is handling "Nosferatu," just as it handled "The Northman." That suggests the studio likes being in the Robert Eggers business, even if "The Northman" ($69 million worldwide/$90 million budget) was one of the bigger flops of 2022. That said, Focus probably like being in the Eggers business at a certain price point. "Nosferatu" figures to be a cheaper movie. I would be shocked if the studio had been willing to give it more than a $50 million budget. If it cost more than that, however, then the movie will need to be successful at a very high level beyond hardcore horror fanatics. That's the risk.

Horror, generally speaking, can be made on the cheap, so when something breaks through, it's highly profitable. When it doesn't work? The losses are relatively minimal. When you start getting into that $50 million or more range, the math gets muddier. Let's just hope the numbers work out here. Focus could use it. Eggers kind of needs it. The vampire sub-genre really needs it.

"Nosferatu" hits theaters on December 25, 2024.