Can Kraven The Hunter Defeat Lord Of The Rings At The Box Office?
An uneven, rollercoaster of a year at the box office is slowly coming to a close. Things couldn't have started worse for theaters in 2024 in the aftermath of last year's dual Hollywood strikes. The release slate through May was downright abysmal and things looked bad. Fortunately, monster hits like "Wicked" and "Moana 2" have helped ensure that we'll finish the year strong. So, can a new Marvel movie and a new adventure in Middle-earth help the cause as well? That's a complicated question but, all the same, "Kraven the Hunter" and "The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim" will both hit screens on the same day next weekend.
Sony's latest "Spider-Man" spin-off, "Kraven the Hunter" is currently looking at a debut in the $16 to $24 million range. Similarly, Warner Bros.' animated "Lord of the Rings" prequel is expected to bring in between $15 and $24 million on opening weekend, per Box Office Theory. First and foremost, that means we're looking at a very tight race. Second, neither of these numbers are particularly big, especially considering the franchises they respective films are associated with. Unfortunately, we're not looking at "Spider-Man: No Way Home" or "Return of the King" here. Quite the opposite, it seems.
In the case of "Kraven," the film stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson as the Spidey villain of the same name. Sure, hardcore Marvel fans know who Kraven is, but do casual moviegoers care? Perhaps more importantly, "Madame Web" is one of the biggest flops of the year and, coupled with 2022's "Morbius," these Sony Marvel films have started to leave a bad taste in everyone's mouths, the "Venom" trilogy aside.
Meanwhile, "The War of the Rohirrim" is deep into J.R.R. Tolkien lore, and it's also an anime film rather than a live-action return to Middle-earth. It doesn't feature any marquee characters such as Frodo that audiences know. Plus, Amazon's "The Rings of Power" has aired two seasons, providing audiences with "Lord of the Rings" at home. This movie's prospects has always seemed relatively limited.
No matter which movie wins, it's probably going to be a loss
"Kraven the Hunter" centers on Kraven, whose complicated relationship with his gangster father, Nikolai Kravinoff (Russell Crowe), sets him on a path of vengeance. J.C. Chandor ("Triple Frontier") directed the film, which promises R-rated Marvel action. Sony even recently released the first eight minutes of the film to try and get prospective viewers on board.
As for "The War of the Rohirrim," Kenji Kamiyama ("Blade Runner: Black Lotus") directed the anime, which is set nearly 200 years before the events of Peter Jackson's "Lord of the Rings" trilogy and reveals the fate of the House of Helm Hammerhand, the legendary King of Rohan. Again, this is deep into the lore and may not be for casual fans.
We're looking at studios trying to make the most of IP with somewhat limited boundaries. Sony only has the "Spider-Man" franchise rights and after the success of "Venom," it tried to emulate that with other villain spin-offs. It hasn't worked well, to say the least. In all likelihood, "Kraven" will be the final straw and Sony will have to figure out what comes next. In the case of "Rohirrim," Warner Bros. wants to capitalize on the success of the "Lord of the Rings" franchise, which has generated nearly $6 billion globally. But it's limited by Tolkien's texts, and they have to try to find more stories to tell that haven't been told on screen already.
The one benefit Sony has is that they've kept the budgets of these "Spider-Man" spin-offs very reasonable. "Madame Web" only cost $80 million, a bargain by superhero movie standards. "Rohirrim" boasts impressive animation, which usually doesn't come cheap. Since "LOTR" plays well overseas, if WB kept the price tag reasonable, this could still be a modest hit. The studio is deeply invested in this franchise, with a new live-action film "The Hunt for Gollum" in the works as well.
In both cases, we're looking at IP plays that are going to come in on the low end of expectations. At best, they're positioned to be modest successes. At worst? It might be back to the drawing board for both Sony and Warner Bros. in these sandboxes.
"Kraven the Hunter" and "The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim" both reach theaters on December 13, 2024.