Red One May Not Be A Huge Box Office Hit, But Don't Call It A Flop

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is one of the biggest stars in the world. At one point, thanks to his work in movies like "Fast Five" and "G.I. Joe: Retaliation," he gained the unofficial designation of "franchise Viagra" for what his name meant to a film in a pre-existing franchise. In the pandemic era, Johnson's reputation has taken a hit with films like "Jungle Cruise" and "Black Adam" failing to live up to expectations. Now, his latest movie "Red One" has arrived. It's big, it's expensive, and it's largely being framed as a flop. But is that fair? Perhaps not.

Director Jake Kasdan's "Red One" opened to $34 million at the domestic box office over the weekend. The film had previously rolled out in many overseas markets and has thus far collected $50 million internationally, for an $84 million global running total. For an original movie that can hold strong throughout the holiday season, that's not bad when divorced from outside factors. Especially considering that the only other original movie to have a similarly big opening in 2024 was John Krasinski's "If" ($33.7 million). Yes, "Wicked" and "Gladiator II" figure to take a big bite out of the competition this upcoming weekend with a potential Barbenheimer-sized double bill. Even so, there are things working in this movie's favor. We'll get into more of that in a moment, but first, let's look at the bad news.

Amazon spent a ridiculous $250 million on the Christmas flick, and that doesn't include an additional $100 million the studio spent on marketing for the theatrical release. That's a $350 million investment, and $84 million isn't going to cut it. That said, this isn't your average $250 million blockbuster. Because this was originally meant to be a streaming movie, this is more like Apple releasing "Napoleon" and "Killers of the Flower Moon" in theaters. Profit in theaters was never in the cards.

"Red One" centers on a group of bad guys who kidnap Santa (J.K. Simmons). Callum Drift (Johnson), the commander of E.L.F. and head of security for Santa, is forced to team up with world famous tracker Jack O'Malley (Chris Evans) to rescue Jolly Old Saint Nick so they can save Christmas. The film also stars Lucy Liu ("Charlie's Angels"), Kiernan Shipka ("Chilling Adventures of Sabrina"), Bonnie Hunt ("Jumanji"), Nick Kroll ("Big Mouth"), and Kristofer Hivju ("Game of Thrones").

Remarkably, the film's opening weekend set a record for a big streaming movie-turned-theatrical release. The previous record was held by Martin Scorsese's "Killers of the Flower Moon," which opened to $23 million last year. That movie finished with $158 million worldwide. While we need to see how the coming weeks treat "Red One," it's assured to eclipse that mark. It also did a heck of a lot better than Apple's pricey "Argylle" did earlier this year. In a world where these huge-budget streaming movies are getting theatrical releases to help boost their profile, this might need to be looked at as a relative win, with some huge qualifiers attached.

Much was made of the film's budget and Johnson's alleged on-set behavior, with "Red One" framed as a disaster in the making months before its rollout. I can't outright defend spending $250 million on a movie like this, but keep in mind that $250 million for a streaming movie is not the same as $250 million for a traditional film. Everyone was paid up front in this case, as opposed to getting big box office bonuses if the film crosses certain thresholds. So we're talking about Amazon paying hefty salaries for all involved — salaries that would typically be covered, at least in part, by bonuses on the backend.

It's also important to note that general audiences really like this movie. It holds a terrible 33% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but a stellar 90% audience rating. It also has an A- CinemaScore, which suggests word of mouth will be strong. That could carry it through much of December before an eventual release on Prime Video, likely timed to the Christmas holiday.

Looking at the numbers, it's easy to argue that this movie makes way more sense in theaters than it would on streaming. "Some money is better than no money" would be another (admittedly somewhat reductive) way to look at it. Not only that, but with no other big movies coming out this past weekend, "Red One" was absolutely necessary to keep theaters afloat for a week before "Gladiator II" and "Wicked" bring the big bucks heading into Thanksgiving.

Not that Amazon put this in theaters out of the kindness of their hearts, but it certainly helped the overall box office picture out in what has been a down year thanks to a rough first half of 2024. "Red One" was originally supposed to go direct-to-streaming where it would have made no money back, save for any new Prime Video sign-ups. At this rate, it should at least make $200 million worldwide, which would recoup the reported marketing budget. (If theaters take approximately half of the earnings and the studio takes the other half, Amazon's half would offset the amount the company spent on trailers, TV spots, billboards, etc.)

At the same time, the theatrical release has boosted the film's profile greatly for its eventual streaming release. As we've seen time and time again, movies released in theaters do way better on streaming. "Madame Web" was a straight-up flop theatrically, but it shot right to the top of the charts on Netflix. Similarly, Disney's "Encanto" was far from a hit in theaters largely thanks to pandemic circumstances, but then it became a monster hit on Disney+. That wouldn't have happened if it had been dumped straight to streaming.

These big budget made-for-streaming movies that get released in theaters are weird beasts. We're grading them on an emerging curve, one that is pretty far removed from the regular blockbuster curve. It's messy, to put it mildly. Grading on that curve, "Red One" probably shouldn't be framed as an outright flop, even if it's far from a hit. It's more complicated than many people are giving it credit for, and we spoke a little more about it on today's episode of the /Film Daily podcast, which you can listen to below:

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"Red One" is in theaters now.