How Much Gladiator II Needs To Make To Become A Box Office Hit

Ridley Scott, who is now closer to 90 than he is 80, continues to fire on all cylinders. Not only is he still making movies, but he's also making them on the biggest scale imaginable. To that end, his latest film, "Gladiator II," is a blockbuster epic and a sequel to one of his most beloved films. It's also on the highest end of expensive for a Hollywood film. Is that going to prohibit Paramount from turning a profit on this one? Or can Scott deliver a global hit that manages to outdo his original Best Picture winning classic?

Early projections had "Gladiator II" taking in roughly $65 million during its domestic opening. For what it's worth, those numbers have largely held in recent weeks, with the folks at Box Office Theory suggesting a gross between $58 and $72 million when it arrives next weekend. That would be a very solid debut for this kind of film, without taking any outside factors into consideration. The problem, as we alluded to, is that Paramount spent an awful lot of money on this film, meaning it needs to make an awful lot of money all around the world to break even.

A report earlier this year alleged that "Gladiator II" saw its budget balloon to $310 million, which is simply an outlandish figure. Fortunately, it seems those reports were at least a little overblown. Scott revealed to The Hollywood Reporter that the film came in $10 million under budget, with the outlet's sources suggesting the final budget is closer to $250 million. That's still tremendously expensive, let's be clear, but it's at least a number that makes it possible for this film to reach profitability ... if absolutely everything goes right, that is.

"Gladiator II" picks up decades after the original. It centers on Paul Mescal ("All of Us Strangers") as Lucius, who is forced to enter the Colosseum after his home is conquered by the Emperors of Rome. The film's star-studded cast also includes the likes of Connie Nielson ("Gladiator"), Joseph Quinn ("Stranger Things"), Pedro Pascal ("The Mandalorian"), and Denzel Washington ("The Equalizer").

The other big thing is that Universal's "Wicked" is opening directly against Scott's latest, and it is tracking to possibly open in the $100 million range. Even on the low end, it's projected to make $80 million. That said, that's not necessarily an issue. After all, last year's "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" proved that two big movies targeting different audiences can succeed at the same time. "Moana 2" is also just around the corner on Thanksgiving week but, again, that's not exactly courting the same audience as "Gladiator II," so that's more likely to impact "Wicked."

Now for the big question: how much money does "Gladiator II" need to make to become a success? Using standard rule of thumb box office math, we can probably assume Paramount is spending at least $100 million on marketing. So, let's assume a total investment of $350 million. Since theaters generally keep about half of the money from ticket sales, we're looking at $700 million — give or take — as the break-even point globally. That means it needs to make "Dune: Part Two" money, which opened to $82.5 million in March before finishing with $714 million worldwide.

If Scott's sequel opens on the high-end of projections, this is within reach. The original "Gladiator" made $465 million worldwide in its day. Adjusted for inflation? That would be well over $800 million in today's dollars. Basically, if the same audience shows up for the sequel, this can work out.

Fortunately, critics are on the movie's side. The early reactions to "Gladiator II" have been resoundingly positive. /Film's Chris Evangelista similarly highlighted Washington's performance in his 7 out of 10 review of the "Gladiator" sequel, writing, "Washington is so enjoyable that the movie sags whenever he's not on screen."

"Gladiator II" opens in theaters on November 22, 2024.