The Wicked And Gladiator II Box Office Estimates Suggests One Thing About Both Movies

It looks like Hollywood and movie theaters are going to have a lot to be thankful for very soon. That's because the Thanksgiving frame is shaping up to be an absolute juggernaut, with not one, not two, but three different films looking to sell a lot of tickets as we head into the holiday season, with Universal's musical "Wicked" and Paramount's long-awaited sequel "Gladiator II" leading the way. While the films couldn't be more different on paper, early box office tracking suggests they have something in common. Namely, general audiences are very interested in both of them.

"Wicked" is currently tracking for an opening weekend of $80 million or more domestically, while "Gladiator II" is eyeing an opening in the $65 million range, per early tracking numbers provided by Deadline. It's very early to start getting hyperbolic, but we could be looking at another Barbenheimer situation here. Last year, Greta Gerwig's "Barbie" and Chrisotpher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" both had blockbuster debuts on the same weekend. They also went on to become some of the biggest films of 2023, with each of them scoring a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars as well. That would certainly be a best-case scenario but, again, let's not get too ahead of ourselves here.

At the very least, these are very solid numbers in the pre-Thanksgiving weekend. What's more, Disney's "Moana 2" is set to arrive the day before Thanksgiving, with the animated sequel expected to pull in $100 million or more across that five-day stretch. That means the holiday frame, overall, could put 2023's Thanksgiving pretty decent box office haul to shame. It's all good news, frankly.

It's no secret that 2024 has been lagging a bit at the box office compared to 2023. The first half of the year was devoid of attractive releases thanks to last year's strikes, with several major blockbusters such as "The Fall Guy" and "Furiosa" majorly disappointing. Things have been looking up since mid-summer but October marked yet another downturn, with "Joker: Folie a Deux" flat-out bombing and "Venom: The Last Dance" proving to be a relative disappointment. All of this to say, this Thanksgiving boom is a most welcome boon for theater owners out there.

"Wicked" tells the untold story of the witches of Oz and is adapted from the wildly popular Broadway musical of the same name. It's directed by Jon M. Chu ("Crazy Rich Asians"), with a stacked ensemble cast led by Cynthia Erivo ("Harriet") and Ariana Grande ("Don't Look Up"). "Wicked" is of interest to women, in particular, who are driving wild pre-sales for the film. To that end, Deadline's report notes that pre-sales are lagging just a little behind "Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour," which opened to $93 million in 2023. That bodes very well.

This is certainly great news for Universal, as the studio opted to split the musical into a two-part adaptation — meaning, it already have a "Wicked" sequel around the corner. If all goes very well, a big finish for the first film could mean the second part will do even bigger numbers when it hits theaters next year. But again, let's not get too ahead of ourselves here. In the short run, "Wicked" looks to join "Wonka" as the rare modern musical that manages to break through with the masses.

Working further in the film's favor is positivity. While full reviews have yet to drop, the early reactions to "Wicked" have all been very upbeat. If buzz continues to build over the next several weeks, it would be easy to imagine this one blowing past current projections. Even with a reported $145 million budget, this should be a home run. Plus, it doesn't seem to be taking anything away from the other major player hitting theaters that same weekend. 

To that end, "Gladiator II" is playing better with men at the moment, meaning this could be a perfect example of counter-programming working at the highest level. Ridley Scott, who directed the original Best Picture winning "Gladiator," returns to the director's chair for the sequel. This one picks up decades after the original, with Paul Mescal ("All of Us Strangers") leading the way as Lucius, who is forced to enter the Colosseum after his home is conquered by the Emperors of Rome. "Gladiator II" also boasts some added star power, with Pedro Pascal ("The Mandalorian") and Denzel Washington ("The Equalizer") rounding out the cast.

Similar to "Wicked," the early reactions to "Gladiator II" have all been resoundingly positive. That could lead to a bigger opening weekend for this one as well. In that way, we could have a Barbenheimer parallel as well, as both "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" blew past opening weekend projections in large part due to stellar word of mouth for both films. This is to say nothing of international appeal, which is sizable for both films. All of the dominoes seem to be lining up here.

The only downside for Scott's "Gladiator" sequel is the rumored, ridiculous $310 million budget. The hope is that those early reports were overblown but, either way, this is clearly a very expensive movie. That makes the early projections all the more encouraging as this one just might be able to avoid disaster brought on by a sky-high budget. Either way, it figures to be a win for theaters to help round out 2024 on a high note.

"Wicked" and "Gladiator II" will both hit theaters on November 22, 2024.