Can Venom 3 Help The Box Office Move Past The Failure Of Joker 2?

October has had its ups and downs at the box office. We recently saw director Damien Leone's ultra-bloody, unrated slasher "Terrifier 3" unexpectedly top the charts. However, theaters have also had to contend with the utter failure of "Joker: Folie a Deux," a film that was expected to be one of the biggest hits of the fall season. Instead, it may go down as the biggest flop of the year. So, can another comic book character swoop in to save the day? Sony's "Venom: The Last Dance" has the opportunity to do precisely that, as Tom Hardy's third go-around as Eddie Brock looks to deliver a big opening weekend.

The third solo "Venom" film is currently looking to top the charts next weekend with an opening weekend in the $70 million range, per tracking (via Deadline). There is at least a chance that number is on the conservative end of things, as the folks at Box Office Theory have the film doing anywhere between $75 and $101 million. Either way, it's going to be a shot of life that the box office could certainly use right now. As for this franchise individually? It's a bit of a mixed bag.

2018's "Venom" pulled in a shocking $856 million worldwide after opening to $80.2 million in the U.S. Its follow-up, 2021's "Venom: Let There Be Carnage," opened to a surprising $90 million on its way to $506 million worldwide. Mind you, that was when the pandemic was a much larger factor and theaters were still getting back on their feet after the months-long shut down in 2020. So, if current estimates hold, "Venom 3" could be looking at the lowest-opening to date for the trilogy. How much does that matter in the grand scheme of things? That's a surprisingly complicated question.

"The Last Dance" centers on Eddie and Venom, who find themselves on the run. The odd-couple duo is being hunted by beings from both of their worlds, forcing them to make a difficult decision with major consequences. It is being billed as Hardy's final time playing the character. Kelly Marcel, who penned the previous entries, is making her feature directorial debut here. The cast also includes Chiwetel Ejiofor ("Doctor Strange"), Juno Temple ("Ted Lasso"), Rhys Ifans ("The Amazing Spider-Man") and Stephen Graham ("Venom: Let There Be Carnage").

As far as theaters are concerned, this will be a win even on the low end of current expectations. A $70 million opening weekend means levels of ticket sales we haven't seen since "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" opened to $111 million in early September. It will also be the second-biggest opening for a comic book movie in 2024 behind only the juggernaut that was "Deadpool & Wolverine" ($211.4 million) in July.

Warner Bros.' "Joker 2" has been a catastrophe, opening to just $37.8 million and fell off a cliff in weekend two with a mere $7 million haul. Director Todd Phillips' sequel is now expected to lose as much as $200 million during its theatrical run. That's not what theaters wanted by any means and they're now left hoping that "Smile 2" breaks out and that "Terrifier 3" holds as well. It's not a great situation so, come what may, Venom gets to be the hero here, rather than the villain.

For Sony, it's the end to the only reliable thing they've done with the "Spider-Man" franchise outside of the main films. They seem to be setting up Knull as a big villain for the future, but where is that future, exactly? Is it going to be in "Spider-Man 4," which is firmly part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe? Is it somehow going to involve "Kraven the Hunter," which hits theaters in December? These are big questions for another time. It matters because Sony needs this movie to be a hit after the failure of "Madame Web" and "Morbius" so that they can continue to have a future with the Marvel rights that they control. At least in the early going, things are still looking good. We'll see how it all shakes out.

"Venom: The Last Dance" hits theaters on October 25, 2024.