Here's How Much Money Joker 2 Will Lose At The Box Office

It's no secret to anyone who pays even a little bit of attention to movies that things have not gone swimmingly for "Joker: Folie a Deux," aka "Joker 2," in the early going. Director Todd Phillips' follow-up to his smash hit 2019 take on the DC Comics villain has essentially been rejected completely by the majority of critics and audiences alike. Those who have decided to see the film appear to be, by and large, dissatisfied customers. This has killed the film's box office prospects and it's already pretty much on life support after just its second weekend. So, it probably shouldn't come as a surprise that Warner Bros. is going to lose a lot of money on this one — and when we say a lot of money, we mean a lot of money.

A recent report from Variety details just how bad the financial situation is for "Joker: Folie a Deux." As the outlet notes, after its second weekend in theaters, the film has made $165 million worldwide thus far, including $51.5 million domestically. For comparison's sake, the original "Joker" grossed more than $1 billion worldwide, having earned nearly $250 million globally after just three days of release, including $96.2 million domestically. To make matters worse? The original had a budget in the $60 million range — a bargain for a comic book movie — whereas the sequel cost a whopping $190 to $200 million. Mind you, that's before marketing, which was estimated to cost $100 million.

So, where does that leave Warner Bros.? The outlet states that the film is going to lose anywhere between $150 and $200 million during its theatrical run. The break-even point is said to be around $450 million worldwide, and it won't get anywhere near that mark. "Joker 2" had a historic second weekend drop at the box office as the lousy word of mouth has caught up with the film. For what it's worth, WB pegs the break-even point at $375 million. Be that as it may, the film still isn't going to get anywhere near that mark, nor does that math really add up, if we start to break things down. It's all bad news from just about every angle.

For those who don't regularly follow the box office, here's a quick primer on how it all works using some rule of thumb math. Theaters keep roughly half of the money from ticket sales. Right now, "Joker 2" is projected to finish its run with around $210 million worldwide. That would mean roughly $105 million returned to WB. That would just about cover marketing costs, leaving the budget to be recouped, which would be close to $200 million. So, Variety's math checks out.

It is admittedly tough to see how the studio arrived at the $375 million break-even estimate. It's entirely possible that number accounts for the lifetime of the movie's potential profit. Let's not forget that it will go to VOD soon, after which it will stream on Max and get a 4K/Blu-ray/DVD release (which is actually already available to pre-order on Amazon). Theatrical isn't the whole picture. Unfortunately, there are considerations to make on that front in regards to this movie.

"Folie a Deux" earned a historically bad D CinemaScore and has a terrible Rotten Tomatoes score, so there's no indication that audiences at home are going to embrace Phillips' film any more than theatrical audiences did. As we've seen time and time again, movies that are received well in theaters do better on VOD, Blu-ray, and in every other revenue-driving market. That being the case, "Joker 2" probably won't move a lot of Blu-rays compared to something like "The Batman," for example. Beyond that, a big revenue driver for comic book movies tends to be merchandise. It's tough to imagine kids wanting an Arthur Fleck action figure for Christmas. Again, it's all bad news.

It didn't need to be this way though. WB could have stepped in at some point and either mitigated risk with the budget or questioned what Phillips was doing. This is an unmitigated disaster that simply didn't need to happen. Of course any studio is going to make a sequel to a $1 billion, mega-profitable hit, but it's hard to imagine it going worse. This is likely going to serve as a cautionary tale for years to come.

"Joker: Folie a Deux" is in theaters now.