Horror Sequel Smile 2 Will Scare Some Much-Needed Life Into The Box Office

By the time next weekend rolls around, the box office will have suffered a bit of an unfortunate downturn. There's no need to revisit the truly bleak first half of 2024 when theaters were downright desperate for even modest hits but the point is, the industry really doesn't need any more setbacks. Unfortunately, with "Joker: Folie a Deux" bombing badly with no hope of a rebound, the first half of October is on life support. That being the case, Paramount's "Smile 2" can't come soon enough, as the horror sequel figures to give the box office a much-needed jolt of life.

Director Parker Finn's follow-up to 2022's surprise breakout hit "Smile" is currently looking at a debut between $25 and $35 million when it hits theaters next weekend, per Box Office Theory. Even on the low end, that would put it above the original, which opened to $22.6 million in late September 2022. "Smile," however, soon became a smash hit, taking in $217 million worldwide and demonstrating great legs against strong word of mouth. That was key in turning Finn's original concept into a bonafide genre blockbuster. As such, opening weekend is only going to tell a small portion of the tale when it comes to the sequel.

Even so, this is going to be just what the industry needs. By the time this movie rolls around on the 18th, "Joker" will be all but dead, "The Wild Robot" will likely be starting to fizzle out, and "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" will be all but done with its admittedly impressive theatrical run. All of that serves to benefit Paramount and Finn though, as there will be far less opposition than previously expected. Michael Keaton's comedy "Goodrich," Cath Blanchett's acclaimed "Rumours," and Disney's "Hocus Pocus" re-release aren't likely to put up much of a fight as direct competition. The path is clear for this one to dominate.

"Smile 2" centers on global pop sensation Skye Riley (Naomi Scott), who is about to embark on a new world tour when she begins experiencing increasingly terrifying, inexplicable events. Overwhelmed by the escalating horrors and pressures of fame, she is forced to confront her dark past before her life spirals out of control. Starring alongside Scott are Lukas Gage ("Road House"), Rosemarie DeWitt ("The Boys"), Peter Jacobson ("Fear the Walking Dead"), and Kyle Gallner, reprising his role from the first film. Finn wrote the screenplay in addition to occupying the director's chair.

At least out of the gate, everything is looking good. Part of what made the first "Smile" such a success is that it only had a production budget of $17 million. Paramount was originally going to dump the movie directly to Paramount+, but wisely decided to give it a theatrical release once it knew what it had. It also signed Parker Finn to a first-look deal, with "Smile 2" serving as its first order of business. The hope here is that Paramount was smart with the budget once again. Yes, the follow-up is likely more expensive but let's hope the studio kept things under $40 million.

The question is to what degree the competition in the weeks that follow will eat into the ticket sales for "Smile 2." "Venom: The Last Dance" is just around the corner and audiences will be hungry for a blockbuster in light of what happened to "Joker 2." On the horror side, "Terrifier 3" is, amazingly enough, poised to top the charts on opening weekend. But can that sustain for multiple weeks? Or will it be die-hards on weekend one with a steep drop-off thereafter? Reviews could be key for "Smile 2," more so than with many other horror films. If word of mouth is good again, it should be in good shape. If critics are far softer on it and audiences agree? It might have a more difficult time charting a similar path as its predecessor. At least in the early going, it will help fill quite a few empty seats in theaters across the country. 

"Smile 2" hits theaters on October 18, 2024.