Lionsgate Is Having Its Worst Year Ever At The Box Office - Here's Why That's Concerning

Lionsgate has been a perhaps unappreciated player in Hollywood over the last 20 years or so. The so-called mini-major studio isn't nearly as big as the likes of Disney or Warner Bros., for example, but it is out there getting it done. From launching franchises like "Saw" and "John Wick" to jump-starting the YA trend of the 2010s with "The Hunger Games," Lionsgate has quietly been the backbone that's made the industry healthier. Heck, it's even taken home media rights that other studios are happy to abandon, which helps keep the DVD/Blu-ray market alive. Unfortunately, things are not going particularly well for Lionsgate at the box office right now, to put it mildly.

The studio has released more than a dozen films in theaters in 2024 and the hits have been modest at best, whereas the flops have been rough. Recently, the comedic action flick "The Killer's Game," which stars Dave Bautista, debuted to $2.6 million domestically and will probably only clear $5 or $6 million in total before making its way to VOD. It carries a $30 million budget. This past weekend, the horror film "Never Let Go" faltered as well, taking in just $4.4 million in its debut. It carries a $20 million budget and stars Oscar-winner Halle Berry.

Sad to say, this is more of a continuation of a trend for Lionsgate this year, rather than a bad couple of weeks. The studio has yet to have a true breakout hit this year. Films Like "Imaginary" ($43 million worldwide/$10 million budget) and "Miller's Girl," which became a breakout success on Netflix, have done well enough, but those aren't able to make up for all of the flops that Lionsgate has endured over the past nine months.

Chief amongst them is director Eli Roth's "Borderlands," which was an utter box office catastrophe. The film, which Lionsgate co-produced, carried a budget well north of $100 million and made less than $33 million globally. Against atrocious reviews, the odds of it making its money back on VOD/streaming are non-existent.

What's worse is that things aren't likely to get any better in the immediate future. Lionsgate's upcoming slate includes the horror movie "Bagman," which has had a very muted marketing campaign thus far. Before that, though, it's got Francis Ford Coppola's "Megalopolis," which is absolutely going to flop at the box office. Granted, the studio is just getting a distribution fee for that one, but it's certainly not going to help the bottom line or the optics any. Lionsgate has also got the Mark Wahlberg thriller "Flight Risk" coming in January, which feels like a "dump it when nothing else is out and hope for the best" situation.

Things won't truly get better until the Michael Jackson biopic "Michael" arrives in April 2025. Based on the footage I saw at CinemaCon, that feels like a lock to become one of the biggest movies of next year, in my humble opinion. But by the time that comes around, Lionsgate will have suffered through all of 2024. Yes, 2023 was fruitful, with hits like "John Wick: Chapter 4," "Saw X," and "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes," but 2021 and 2022 weren't all that fantastic thanks to the slower than expected pandemic recovery.

The last thing any studio needs is another down year. The problem for Lionsgate is that it's not as financially well equipped to weather the storm. Disney is one of the biggest companies in the world. Even Paramount, which wasn't in great shape before the recent Skydance deal, has more assets to work with. Lionsgate operates within the margins. It makes good deals to protect itself financially. That makes the wins smaller in many cases. It also makes big bets like "Borderlands" hurt more. That's the issue.

I should say that others might argue "[X year] was worse for Lionsgate, actually." There are, admittedly, various ways to look at the overall picture. The point is, if we're even having to have this conversation, things have gone south. Is the second-worst year in the studio's history really all that much better? Let's not get away from what's at stake here.

We haven't even talked about the box office disaster that was "The Crow." Not to mention, "The Strangers: Chapter 1" didn't pan out as the studio had hoped, leaving the rest of that already-filmed trilogy on uncertain ground. 2024 has simply been a disaster for the studio theatrically. Luckily, Lionsgate isn't playing the streaming game and will make a great deal of money from its big movie catalog. Is that enough to offset its losses? I don't have those balance sheets but, at very best, this isn't what any studio hopes for in a given year, to state the obvious.

At a time when more and more consolidation is happening in Hollywood, Lionsgate's survival is imperative. Disney purchased Fox in 2019. Warner Bros. Discovery has been a bit of a mess and there might be another merger there in the future. Hollywood is getting smaller as the individual companies get much, much bigger. Netflix has effectively won the streaming war and everyone else is trying to figure out what to do as cable slowly dies. For fans of movies, Lionsgate represents a place where original ideas can still thrive. Lionsgate excels at making mid-budget movies, which other studios often ignore. Viewers have more options, more originality, and more out-of-the-box franchises with them around.

The hope here is that this is a speed bump that doesn't derail the train. Lionsgate's slate next year also includes "Saw XI," the "John Wick" spin-off "Ballerina," and "Now You See Me 3." It's got potential hits on the horizon. What it can't afford is another "Borderlands" or "The Crow." It simply cannot suffer more of these big-budget disasters. Focus on playing smart baseball, as it were. Get on base, don't go for the grand slam.

With any luck, 2024's blunders will teach the brass at Lionsgate lessons that can be used in the future to keep the business healthy for years to come.