Megalopolis Is Destined To Flop At The Box Office – But Just How Bad Is It Going To Be?

Francis Ford Coppola is going to go down in history as one of the greatest directors to ever do it. From "The Godfather" to "Bram Stoker's Dracula" and everything in between, the man has gifted us with some of the most beloved films to grace the silver screen. Coppola is back for what figures to be his swan song with his long-gestating passion project "Megalopolis." The only downside is that the film's fate is all but sealed, commercially speaking, and it's not a good one. Coppola's epic is going to bomb theatrically, that much is certain. The only question that remains is just how bad is it going to be? Also, who is going to be on the wrong end of things when the losses begin to pile up?

"Megalopolis" is looking at an opening weekend in the $5 to $8 million range when it hits theaters in North America next weekend, per The Hollywood Reporter. That's pretty rough, considering the film carries a reported $120 million budget, which was financed by Coppola personally. Even the most bullish current projections via Box Office Theory have the film taking in $12 million on opening weekend. That's not what anyone wants to see in a movie of this size. It will get a little help from IMAX screens and those premium format ticket prices. Still, that's clearly not going to help move the needle enough to matter in the grand scheme of things. 

That having been said, Coppola seems to have no illusions about what he's doing here. The filmmaker put forth the entire budget so that he could have full creative control. That led to a reportedly chaotic set, with crew members leaving during production. The end result proved to be a tough sell, with most Hollywood studios passing on the chance to distribute it. Lionsgate ended up signing on at the 11th hour, but they are only invested as a distributor and are being paid a fee to put it in theaters.

Lionsgate isn't even putting up the marketing budget, meaning that's more money — millions more — that Coppola had to come up with. So, at the end of the day, Lionsgate isn't going to lose money here. It all rests on Coppola's shoulders. He's the writer, director, producer, and financier. 

The film is described as a Roman Epic set in an imagined Modern America. The City of New Rome must change, causing conflict between Cesar Catilina, a genius artist who seeks to leap into a utopian, idealistic future, and his opposition, Mayor Franklyn Cicero, who remains committed to a regressive status quo, perpetuating greed, special interests, and partisan warfare. Coppola assembled a stacked ensemble led by Adam Driver ("Star Wars: The Force Awakens") and Nathalie Emmanuel ("Furious 7"). The cast also includes Aubrey Plaza ("The White Lotus"), Shia LaBeouf ("Transformers"), Talia Shire ("Rocky"), and Giancarlo Esposito ("Better Call Saul"), among others.

Early reactions to "Megalopolis" out of Cannes earlier this year were all over the place. It unfortunately won't benefit from must-see buzz. It also doesn't help matters that there has been a fair amount of bad press surrounding the film. Aside from the crew member departures, a since-deleted trailer used fake reviews but made them seem real. So even the marketing has been a bit rocky.

In terms of comparisons, it's looking like it might play like "The Bikeriders," which opened to $9.6 million domestically and finished with $36 million worldwide. On the very high end, it could do "Challengers" numbers, with the tennis drama opening to $15 million before topping out with $94.2 million worldwide. Even if the film catches on overseas it's impossible to see a world where it makes more than $150 million total.

It calls to mind Kevin Costner's Western epic "Horizon: An American Saga" from earlier this year. The first entry in a planned four-film saga topped out with just $35.4 million worldwide against a similarly huge $100 million budget. Warner Bros. was forced to pull the already-finished "Horizon Chapter 2" from its release schedule earlier this year and it remains without a release date.

At the very least, Coppola's vanity project is a one-and-done. Even if the filmmaker understands what he's doing, he's probably going to lose tens of millions of dollars in the short term. If the film can find life on VOD and maintains a long shelf life due to its significance within Coppola's filmography? He can make at least some of that money back through Blu-ray, streaming, etc. In the short run though, Coppola is just going to have to be happy that his passion project is seeing the light of day.

"Megalopolis" hits theaters on September 27, 2024.