Transformers One Can Be A Box Office Hero Just Like Into The Spider-Verse

While there are those who will sigh at the mere mention of Autobots and/or Decepticons these days, there is no denying that "Transformers" has been one of the most successful franchises of the past 20 years. Dating back to Michael Bay's original 2007 live-action film, the series based on Hasbro's beloved toys has done gangbusters business at the box office, paving the way for more shows, merchandise, theme park attractions, and yes, toys. Now, can Paramount bring things full circle and deliver a hit animated feature film in this universe? That is the question "Transformers One" will have to answer.

The animated prequel is set to reach theaters next weekend. Directed by Josh Cooley, of "Toy Story 4" fame, "Transformers One" is currently eyeing an opening in the $37 to $45 million range, per Box Office Theory. That is obviously on the low side in terms of what we've come to expect from this franchise, with last year's "Transformers: Rise of the Beasts" opening to $61 million domestically before topping out at $439 million worldwide, making it the lowest-grossing live-action entry in the series to date. Even so, there are some major considerations to be made here.

First and foremost, things change when we go from live-action to animated. The best comparison would probably be 2018's "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse," which earned $375.5 million worldwide after opening to $35.3 million domestically. That film had excellent legs brought on by great word of mouth, and it even won the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. That set up the sequel, 2023's "Across the Spider-Verse," to do even better, bringing in $690 million worldwide.

However, when we compare that to the live-action "Spider-Man" films, it seems minimal. Even "The Amazing Spider-Man 2," which straight-up killed Andrew Garfield's run as the character, made $709 million worldwide. At the top end? We have "Spider-Man: No Way Home," which ranks as one of the biggest movies of all time with more than $1.9 billion to its name. Yet, the animated films are still considered major successes that helped expand the scope of the franchise. Therein lies the point here.

The new CGI animated film serves as an origin story focused on Optimus Prime and Megatron. They are better known as sworn enemies, but they were once friends who were bonded like brothers and changed the fate of their homeworld Cybertron forever. The voice cast is absolutely stacked, with Chris "Thor" Hemsworth and "Eternals" star Brian Tyree Henry leading the way as Optimus and Megatron, respectively. The cast also includes Scarlett Johansson ("Black Widow"), Keegan-Michael Key ("The Super Mario Bros. Movie"), Steve Buscemi ("Hotel Transylvania"), Laurence Fishburne ("The Matrix"), and Jon Hamm ("Mad Men").

One thing that Paramount has going for it is that the studio tends not to overspend on animated films, even in big franchises. Case in point, last year's "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem" only cost $70 million (before marketing), which allowed it to become a hit with a gross of just $180.5 million worldwide. The studio has been similarly thrifty with its animated "SpongeBob" films as well. There's no reason to think it abandoned that approach with this one.

That being the case, an opening in the $40 million range would be solid, particularly given that early buzz for "Transformers One" has been good. Reactions on social media have been largely positive, with /Film's Rafael Motamayor even calling it "the 'Transformers' equivalent of a biblical epic" out of Annecy. This all bodes well as good word of mouth could help the film leg out through the fall. Even on opening weekend, direct competition is light, with horror films such as "Never Let Go" and "The Substance" also reaching theaters.

In short? If all goes well, this could do for the "Transformers" franchise what the "Spider-Verse" films did for Peter Parker. Yes, Paramount can still make that live-action "Transformers" and "G.I. Joe" crossover movie, but this could expand the scope of what it can do with the characters theatrically.

"Transformers One" hits theaters on September 20, 2024.