Alien: Romulus Poised To Be The Perfect Killing Machine At The Box Office

It has been a full seven years since a new entry in the "Alien" franchise has graced the silver screen. Director Ridley Scott's "Alien: Covenant" arrived in 2017 and failed to generate enough interest to justify a continuation of those prequels. Now, under the Disney regime, the Xenomorphs are back in action, this time with a new director behind the camera for "Alien: Romulus." With a stripped down premise, the promise of lots of practical creature effects, and excitement from horror fans, this one is poised to be a late summer surprise at the box office.

"Romulus" is eyeing a debut in the $41 to $51 million range when it opens next weekend, per Box Office Theory. That would be a huge win for Disney and 20th Century Studios. The film is directed by Fede Alvarez, of "Don't Breathe" and "Evil Dead (2013)" fame. "Covenant" opened to $36.1 million and finished its run with $74.2 million domestically. It only earned $240.8 million worldwide, far less than 2012's "Prometheus" ($403 million worldwide). In short, Alvarez's film is set up for a nice run, particularly if reviews are strong.

This is all particularly impressive given that when Alvarez's new "Alien" film was first announced in 2022, it was going to be dumped directly to Hulu. This would have been similar to Dan Trachtenberg's "Predator" prequel "Prey," which was met with widespread acclaim and was left to languish on Hulu without a theatrical release. The belief is that "Prey" would have done quite well for itself in theaters, but of course, we'll never know. Fortunately, it seems Disney learned not to make the same mistake twice. Not only is some theatrical revenue better than no theatrical revenue, but this movie looks like it's going to be a straight-up, unqualified hit.

The latest entry in the long-running sci-fi/horror franchise takes place between the events of 1979's "Alien" and 1986's "Aliens." It centers on a group of young space colonizers. While scavenging the deep ends of a derelict space station, they come face to face with the most terrifying lifeform in the universe. The ensemble cast is composed of mostly up-and-comers, including Cailee Spaeny ("Priscilla"), David Jonsson ("Industry"), Archie Renaux ("Shadow and Bone"), Isabela Merced ("The Last of Us"), Spike Fearn ("Aftersun"), and Aileen Wu.

Scott's original "Alien" remains arguably one of the most important hits in cinema history, having earned $186.9 million globally to date against a mere $11 million budget. More importantly, it kicked off a franchise that has endured for 45 years, with some admitted low points in there. (The less said about "Alien vs. Predator — Requiem," the better.) What's most amazing is that "Covenant" is the closest thing this franchise has had to an outright flop, but against a $97 million budget, it may well have made its money back already, especially since the film has developed something of a cult-ish following in the years since its release. I count myself as a member of that cult.

All of this to say, "Romulus" seems like a good investment. The marketing has promised lots of practical Xenomorph action, which resonates with hardcore fans. It's also being marketed as a pretty easy onboarding point for new fans, requiring little to no homework. While the budget has yet to be officially revealed, it's believed to be in the $60 to $70 million range, which makes sense given that it was conceived for streaming. 

With a strong lack of direct competition for the rest of August, if word of mouth is good, this one could leg out well into September. It's very early, but things are looking good.

"Alien: Romulus" hits theaters on August 16, 2024.