The Borderlands Movie Needs A Miracle To Avoid Disaster At The Box Office

After literally years of waiting, the "Borderlands" movie is finally upon us. Directed by Eli Roth (with an assist from "Deadpool" director Tim Miller), the feature film based on the wildly popular series of video games arrives on the big screen next weekend. Not only have fans of the games long been waiting to see these characters brought to life, but Lionsgate has been actively working on this adaptation for several years. It's been plagued with delays, but it's now, at long last, going to get its day in court. Unfortunately, based on the early indicators, from a business perspective, it's not going to be a bumpy ride.

"Borderlands" is currently eyeing an opening weekend domestically in the $13 to $18 million range, per Box Office Theory. The big question mark right now is the film's budget, which has yet to be reported. It is estimated to be in the $100 million range. That would make sense based on the trailers, which promise "Mad Max" by way of "Guardians of the Galaxy." That sort of blockbuster entertainment doesn't come cheap. Not to mention the stacked A-list cast, which includes Cate Blanchett ("Thor: Ragnarok"), Kevin Hart ("Lift"), Jack Black ("The Super Mario Bros. Movie"), and recent Oscar-winner Jamie Lee Curtis ("Halloween"). They don't come cheap either.

All of this to say, even on the high end, that opening weekend number is more than a little rough. It also doesn't help that Sony's "It Ends With Us" is opening the same weekend and looks to pull in a larger audience with a debut closer to $20 million. That, plus the monster success that is "Deadpool & Wolverine" will still be hanging around, as will M. Night Shyamalan's "Trap." Stiff competition certainly doesn't help matters here. Whatever the case, Lionsgate is going to need a miracle to save this from being a financial disaster, it seems.

"Borderlands" is based on the series of games from 2K and GearBox. It centers on Lilith (Blanchett), an infamous bounty hunter who reluctantly returns to her chaotic home planet Pandora. She's tasked with finding the missing daughter of the powerful Atlas (Edgar Ramírez). Lilith forms an unexpected alliance with a ragtag team of misfits, who must battle their way across Pandora to uncover one of the planet's biggest secrets. Roth co-wrote the screenplay. Craig Mazin ("The Last of Us," "Chernobyl") fought to have his name removed from the project, but was originally one of the credited writers.

Mazin having his name removed is just one of many factors that gives us reason to be concerned about this big-budget video game adaptation. Filming originally wrapped way back in June 2021, which was more than three years ago. Extensive reshoots have since taken place, with the release date having been pushed several times. It's been a bumpy ride.

So, how can Lionsgate and Roth avoid disaster with a sub-$20 million opening for a movie that probably cost more than $100 million to make before marketing costs? Without even addressing critical word of mouth, which has yet to emerge, the studio will be relying on overseas grosses to bail it out. To be fair, that has happened before. Just look at "Warcraft," which made $438.8 million worldwide and was the biggest video game movie ever until "Mario" dethroned it last year. Yet, only $47.3 million came from domestic ticket sales. The rest came from overseas.

The problem there is that "Warcraft" made an astonishing $225.5 million in China, where Hollywood movies have largely struggled in the pandemic era. In short, this movie will be facing an uphill battle based on the information before us. It's not dead in the water yet, it's just going to need a lot of help to avoid catastrophe.

"Borderlands" hits theaters on August 9, 2024.