Deadpool & Wolverine Won't Just Break Box Office Records - It Will Shatter Them

The first half of 2024 was, to put it mildly, a rough ride at the box office. Ticket sales were lagging way behind 2023 levels, with franchise entries such as "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" and "The Fall Guy" coming in well below expectations. Fortunately, things have started to turn around with the likes of "Inside Out 2" and "Despicable Me 4" delivering the goods. But that may all look like child's play next weekend when Marvel's "Deadpool & Wolverine" arrives. Not only because this will be an R-rated, live-action blockbuster filling theaters around the world (as opposed to animated family-friendly fare), but also because this superhero team-up is poised to straight-up shatter records on opening weekend.

Directed by Shawn Levy ("The Adam Project"), with Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman returning as Wade Wilson and Logan, respectively, interest for this one is higher than any other superhero movie in quite some time. Based on early estimates, even more than last year's "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3," which made $845 million worldwide after opening to $118.4 million domestically. That was a PG-13 trilogy capper. In this case, we're dealing with an R-rated affair but that won't dampen ticket sales, it seems. To that end, "Deadpool & Wolverine" is currently expected to pull in at least $160 million when it opens next weekend, per early tracking via Variety. That number, however, looks to be on the conservative end.

The outlet notes that those tracking numbers came in before the big marketing push. Beyond that, the folks at Box Office Theory are far more bullish on the film's prospects, with the outlet suggesting an opening between $167 and $214 million. Admittedly, that's a wide range but even on the very low end, we're looking at a record-breaking debut. For what it's worth, the latest entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe started breaking records early, as the film set records at AMC and other theater chains for R-rated pre-sales. The excitement is palpable.

Marvel Studios is keeping a tight lid on plot details for this one, but we know it's going to see Reynolds' Deadpool recruit Jackman's Wolverine for an adventure through the multiverse. This has certainly been hinted at as the trailers for "Deadpool & Wolverine" have brought back characters like Sabertooth and Pyro, among others. One assumes there are many other big surprises in store. Hardcore MCU fans will want to get in on the action early so as to not have those surprises spoiled.

Even on the very low end, "D&W" will make its way into the record books. Currently, the original "Deadpool" holds the record for an R-rated domestic opening with $132.4 million, followed by "Deadpool 2" ($125.5 million) and "Joker" ($123.4 million). On the high end, this movie could become the first R-rated movie to ever crack $200 million on opening weekend and just the ninth movie in history to reach such heights. That coveted list currently includes "Black Panther" ($202 million), "The Avengers" ($207.4 million), "Jurassic World" ($208.8 million), "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" ($220 million), "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" ($247.9 million), "Avengers: Infinity War" ($257.6 million), "Spider-Man: No Way Home" ($260.1 million), and the one-time highest-grossing movie of all time "Avengers: Endgame" ($357.1 million).

My belief from the beginning was that Jackman's Wolverine dramatically increased the financial prospects of "Deadpool 3." 2017's "Logan" may have served as a great send-off for his version of the character, but this is a team-up fans have been dying to see for a long time. It has similar appeal to "No Way Home," which reunited all of the Spider-Men. On that note, that film had been tracking for between $130 and $175 million just days before release and it blew past those projections. That very well could happen here as well. As Wade and Logan say in the trailer, let's f*****g go.

"Deadpool & Wolverine" hits theaters on July 26, 2024.