Director Kevin Costner's Western Horizon Poised To Bomb At The Box Office

Kevin Costner is a legend in the Western genre. From his Best Picture winning feature directorial debut "Dances With Wolves" to his work on the wildly popular TV series "Yellowstone," Costner has cemented himself as an icon in this area. Now, after years of development, he has stepped behind the camera to bring "Horizon: An American Saga" to life. The planned four-film franchise is releasing its first two parts mere weeks apart this summer, with "Chapter 1" arriving next weekend. Unfortunately, it appears as though Costner's ambitious passion project isn't going to be commercially viable. At least not out of the gate.

"Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1" is currently eyeing an opening weekend between $11 and $18 million, per Box Office Theory. That lines up with early tracking, which had the film taking in around $12 million on opening weekend, according to The Hollywood Reporter. In short, that's not a good start — to put it mildly — for a film with a $100 million budget. Fortunately for Warner Bros., the studio is only on the hook for distribution in North America. Costner financed the project independently, putting in $38 million of his own money to make it happen.

Paramount's prequel "A Quiet Place: Day One" is also opening the same day and it is likely to top the charts with an opening north of $40 million. That doesn't help "Horizon." Working in Costner's favor, however, is the fact that a large chunk of the budget was financed by selling off various international rights for the film. Even so, nobody wants to see a $100 million blockbuster open to less than $20 million in the U.S., particularly because Westerns often have slightly less appeal overseas. This one is especially American-centric, which may limit its potential in other countries. Simply put, things aren't looking good in the early going.

Costner's Western epic is described as a multi-faceted chronicle covering the Civil War expansion and settlement of the American West. The films explore the lure of the Old West and how it was taken over through blood, sweat, and tears from 1861 to 1865. Conster stars in and co-wrote the films in addition to his duties as director. He has also assembled a massive ensemble cast that includes Sienna Miller ("American Sniper"), Sam Worthington ("Avatar"), Owen Crow Shoe ("Tin Star"), Danny Huston ("Wonder Woman"), Tom Payne ("The Walking Dead"), Michael Rooker ("Guardians of the Galaxy"), and Will Patton ("Halloween"), among many others.

To say that Costner is committed to "Horizon" would be an understatement. "Chapter 2" is already in the can and set to arrive on August 16, less than two months after the first installment. Meanwhile, he's gone ahead and started prepping "Chapter 3." Scheduling conflicts with these films are a large reason why he's not returning for the conclusion of "Yellowstone" season 5. Somewhat ironically, the success of these films primarily depends on whether or not he can galvanize that same audience that loves "Yellowstone" and get them to leave the house and head to a theater.

He needs that audience invested well beyond this first installment as well. Hundreds of millions of dollars are on the line. Costner, for what it's worth, sees this as a long game beyond the box office. He recently touted the continued value of DVD and the ability to re-license the films in the coming years on cable/streaming around the world. So, in the long run, maybe this pans out. In the short run though, unless tracking is way off, it's going to be tough sledding.

"Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1" is set to hit theaters on June 28, 2024.