John Krasinski's IF Looks Like It Could Pull An Elemental At The Box Office

It's no secret that the summer box office has not been off to a great start. "The Fall Guy" kicked things off with a disappointing opening weekend before Universal rushed the film to VOD. It got worse with the dual weak performances of both "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" and "The Garfield Movie" more recently. No two ways about it: Things have been bad. But in looking for reasons to be optimistic, we may be able to turn to director John Krasinski's "IF." The family-friendly flick opened in mid-May to middling results. It has, however, been legging out better than expected in North America — so much so that maybe, just maybe, this one has a shot at pulling an "Elemental."

For those who may need a refresher, Pixar's "Elemental" opened to just $29.6 million in June last year and seemed to be dead on arrival. Then, something amazing happened. The movie had remarkably long legs and found a massive audience overseas, ultimately becoming the highest-grossing original Hollywood movie of the pandemic era thus far. It wound up pulling in $154.4 million domestically to go with $342 million internationally for a $496.4 million grand total. It was an unimaginable, remarkably rare turnaround for the ages.

Circling back to "IF." The film, which stars Ryan Reynolds and Cailey Fleming, topped the charts on opening weekend with a $33.7 million haul. But for a movie with a $110 million budget, that wasn't quite going to cut it. However, in its most recent weekend, even with "Garfield" there for the family crowd, the film managed to drop just 35% in its third frame for a $10.5 million haul, coming in above "Furiosa" in its second weekend. Against the odds, Krasinski's latest has pulled in $80.1 million domestically and $57.6 million overseas for a running total of $137.7 million globally, with gas left in the tank.

What we've seen in the pandemic era as far as family films go is that they can have a remarkably long shelf life in theaters. "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish" had one of the most impressive box office runs in recent memory after a relatively weak opening weekend at the end of 2022, ultimately making $481.7 million worldwide. Similarly, Illumination's "Migration" did damn decent business pulling in $298.4 million globally after a very weak $12.4 million opening. It appears as though "IF" might just benefit from the same audience, assuming Paramount doesn't panic and bring it to VOD in a hurry. Patience might be the key here, but if it continues to hold well in the coming weeks, this would be one heck of a turnaround. 

Working in the movie's favor is an A CinemaScore, which has led to great word of mouth. While critics were a bit mixed on "IF," with /Film's Ethan Anderton calling it whimsical and messy, audiences seem to like it a lot, and that's proving to be more valuable. It also has yet to open in several major territories, including China and Japan. If things go very well, this one could finish closer to $300 million than $200 million, which would be a really encouraging thing in an otherwise rough year for theaters.

Am I saying that "IF" is going to wind up making close to $500 million worldwide by the end of its run? No. But I am saying that the movie is retaining an audience even as competition enters the marketplace, and holding better than anyone might have thought. If Paramount can just exercise some real discipline here and hold back the VOD release for a bit, this could be another nice example of the opening weekend not telling the whole story.

"IF" is in theaters now.