Mad Max Prequel Furiosa Seeks To Top Fury Road At The Box Office

Nine years ago, director George Miller came kind of out of nowhere to deliver one of the greatest action movies of all time with "Mad Max: Fury Road." Miller revived the long-dead franchise with a film so universally beloved the only shocking thing is that it took nine years to get another "Mad Max" movie made. Well, here we are, staring down the barrel of the release of "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga," which tells the origin story of Furiosa (played by Charlize Theron in "Fury Road"). The question is, can this prequel build on the audience that has come to adore "Fury Road" in the years since its release? Warner Bros. will need that to be the case for the film to be an outright hit at the box office.

"Furisa" hits theaters next weekend and will be opening directly against "The Garfield Movie." Admittedly, these films are both playing for radically different audiences. As it stands, it appears as though "Furiosa" has the edge, with an opening weekend between $46.5 million and $59 million in the cards, per Box Office Theory. For historical context, "Fury Road" opened to $45.4 million in May 2015 on its way to $153.6 domestically and $379.4 million worldwide. So, at the very least, Miller's latest has a shot to top its predecessor on opening weekend, not accounting for inflation.

As for "Garfield," the animated take on the lasagna-eating cat is eyeing a debut in the $32 to $41 million range. So, if "Garfield" over-performs and "Furiosa" comes in on the lower end of projections, we could have a tight race for the top spot on the charts. Miller's new "Mad Max" epic has a reported $168 million budget, a bit more than the $150 million spent on "Fury Road." So, while chart position doesn't matter all that much, it is important that this one come in on the higher end of projections.

The prequel centers on a young Furiosa (Anya Taylor-Joy) who is taken from the Green Place and falls into the hands of a warlord named Dementus (Chris Hemsworth). While he battles it out with Immortan Joe for dominance over the Wasteland, Furiosa must survive various trials as she tries to find her way home.

It's worth remembering that "Fury Road," for all of the love the movie has on its side, was only a modest hit in its day relative to its budget. It certainly didn't hurt that it had a massive night at the Oscars in 2016, in addition to a long shelf life beyond its theatrical run. But WB would undoubtedly like to see the follow-up play like a more traditional summer blockbuster by putting a lot of butts in seats.

There are a few things working in WB and Miller's favor here. For one, in the early going, most critics have been on the film's side. /Film's BJ Colangelo gave "Furiosa" a perfect 10 out of 10 review calling it, "Miller's magnum opus." The film has also secured a release in China. While the country hasn't been as big on Hollywood releases in the pandemic era, no "Mad Max" movie has ever played there, and that added revenue can help the bottom line beyond North America. It also has the benefit of the Monday Memorial Day holiday.

A lack of competition is also working in this movie's favor. For some reason, there are no meaningful, big releases hitting theaters on May 31, meaning that it won't face a major newcomer until "Bad Boys: Ride or Die" on June 7. That will give the film a couple of weeks to be the talk of the town. In short? If all goes well, it's looking pretty good for this one in the early going.

"Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" hits theaters on May 24, 2024.