The Strangers: Chapter 1 Aims To Carve Up 2024's First Big Horror Box Office Hit

Horror has been one of the most reliable genres at the box office since the pandemic began. Even movies like "The Wretched" helped keep the industry's pulse going while most theaters were shut down in 2020. Unfortunately, 2024 has, up to this point, not produced a major break-out hit yet, with only indie success stories like "Immaculate" and "Late Night with the Devil" to celebrate. We've yet to have a "Smile" ($22.6 million domestic opening/$217 million global finish) or a "M3GAN" ($30.4 million domestic opening/$180 million worldwide). Lionsgate, however, hopes to change that with the release of "The Strangers: Chapter 1."

Directed by Renny Harlin, this is the first entry in a new trilogy of films that will reboot the franchise started by director Bryan Bertino in 2008 with his home invasion classic "The Strangers." As the title implies, "Chapter 1" is just the first entry in the trilogy, which has already been completely filmed. All three films will be released within the span of a year, beginning on May 17 with the first entry. The question is, can Lionsgate turn this franchise into a bigger, mainstream summer movie season success?

"The Strangers: Chapter 1" is currently eyeing an opening weekend haul between $7 and $13 million domestically, per Box Office Theory. It will open against John Krasinski's family-friendly "IF," which is pegged to debut with anywhere between $30 and $50 million, give or take. Focus Features is also releasing the Amy Winehouse biopic "Back to Black," which has done well for itself in the early going overseas. But it isn't facing any major competition from other studio horror releases, as Sony's "Tarot" had a muted opening and should quickly fade to the background. We don't have another major studio horror film arriving until "The Watchers" on June 14. That's the good news. There's also some not-so-great news. Even at the top end of current projections, this movie has a hill to climb to become a big hit.

Blumhouse's "Night Swim" opened to $11.8 million earlier this year and topped out at $54 million worldwide. It's currently the highest-grossing American horror movie of 2024. Granted, it had a pretty sizable drop in weekend two. If "Strangers" can avoid that and find a little more success overseas, it might be in a better position. It's a matter of not getting swallowed up by the rest of the summer slate. Reviews/word of mouth could be especially important here. This one probably won't be able to overcome a "meh" response.

The film focuses on a young couple whose car breaks down, forcing them to spend the night in a remote cabin. Things get scary in a hurry when three masked strangers begin terrorizing them with no mercy and seemingly no motive. Madelaine Petsch ("Riverdale") and Froy Gutierrez ("Cruel Summer") star.

To become the biggest American horror movie of the year, "Strangers: Chapter 1" just has to make more than $54 million. For context, Bertino's original opened to $21 million domestically on its way to $83 million worldwide in 2008. If this new take can do similar numbers, Lionsgate would be happy. The budget has yet to be revealed but Harlin filmed all three of these new "Strangers" movies at once. So we have one budget split between three movies, essentially. Fortunately, Lionsgate tends to be thrifty enough with horror titles.

Last year's "Saw X" cost $13 million and made $111.8 million worldwide. On the more expensive end, 2019's "Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark" cost $28 million and made $104.5 million worldwide. If we triple those budgets, we'd be looking at a total budget between $39 and $84 million for the trilogy. My guess is it's much closer to $39 million. So, if the trilogy can pull in $150 million or so, Lionsgate can probably call this experiment a win. Heck, last year's "Thanksgiving" made $46.5 million against a $15 million budget, and now Eli Roth is returning to direct a sequel. Being thrifty lowers the bar for success, to be certain.

"The Strangers: Chapter 1" hits theaters on May 17, 2024.