John Krasinski's IF Hopes To Lift The Box Office With A Family-Friendly Original

The summer movie season is in need of a hero. Can the director of "A Quiet Place" and the star of "Deadpool" come together to be those heroes? That's the question we're faced with the release of Paramount Pictures' "IF," a new, original, family-friendly picture that promises a magical blend of CGI and live-action involving lots of imaginary friends. So, can Krasinski pivot from mid-budget horror to big-budget family films while maintaining the same level of success?

"IF" is currently eyeing an opening in the $40 million range when it opens on May 17, per The Hollywood Reporter. Early tracking had the movie falling between $38 and $42 million, though some believe it can go as high as $50 million. That would be an unqualified win for an original movie of any kind right now. That is assuming that the film does, indeed, fall in line with those early expectations. For what it's worth, Box Office Theory has Krasinski's latest directorial effort pulling in $28 million on the low end and $35 million on the high end. That would be less great.

It's no secret that 2024 is off to a rough start at the box office, with ticket sales down more than 20% compared to this same point in 2023. "The Fall Guy" kicked off the summer with a whimper, taking in less than $30 million for one of the worst starts to the season in decades. That being the case, Hollywood is currently starring down a brutal summer box office with little hope on the horizon. So a movie like "IF" has pressure to perform at the high end of expectations. Every dollar matters right now.

"IF" was written by Krasinski based on his original concept. It centers on a girl (played by Cailey Fleming) who discovers that she can see everyone's imaginary friends as she embarks on a magical adventure to reconnect forgotten IFs with their kids. It is not to be confused with Jeff Wadlow's horror movie "Imaginary" from earlier this year. The cast is hilariously stacked with Ryan Reynolds leading the way, but he's just the tip of the iceberg. Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Louis Gossett Jr., and Krasinski's former "The Office" star Steve Carell, among many others, lend their voices to the film's many CGI imaginary friends.

Original movies are a huge gamble in the pandemic era. At the very least, expensive originals are hard to turn into hits. Another Reynolds adventure from the pandemic era may serve as the best comp for this one panning out. 2021's "Free Guy" became a rare original sci-fi hit, pulling in $331 million worldwide against a reported $100 million budget. It legged out after opening to just over $28 million domestically. While Paramount has yet to reveal the budget for "IF," it feels like it probably falls in a similar range. If it's cheaper somehow? Great! If it's more expensive? Not so great.

A comp for this going poorly would be last year's "Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves." Despite solid reviews, the "D&D" film opened to $37.2 million but topped out with just $208.1 million worldwide. Granted, that movie's $150 million budget didn't help. Let's just hope Krasinski was more thrifty.

Where Paramount benefits here is that family films have less direct competition, which can allow them to leg out. Just look at last year's "Elemental" ($29.6 million domestic opening/$496.4 million worldwide) or even this year's "Kung Fu Panda 4" ($58 million domestic opening/$521 million worldwide). If word of mouth is good, this one has a real shot.

"IF" hits theaters on May 17, 2024.