Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes Is Set To Rule The Box Office In May

The summer movie season is here. After a frankly terrible start to the box office in 2024, all eyes are now on everything from "The Fall Guy" to "Deadpool & Wolverine" to give movie theaters a reason to celebrate. As far as May goes, "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" looks to get things moving in the right direction, being the first entry in the franchise in seven years. We've got a new filmmaker, a new cast, a new timeline, and a new reason to believe that this classic sci-fi property will once again find life more than 55 years after the original film debuted in 1968.

Current tracking suggests that "Kingdom" will open between $54 and $61 million domestically, per Deadline. Assuming that holds, it would be a damn fine start for the film. While the budget has yet to be revealed, it is said to be in the $120 million range. Disney and 20th Century Studios would likely want to keep it around that mark, as 2017's "War for the Planet of the Apes" carried a $150 million budget. For what it's worth, that film opened to $56.2 million domestically on its way to $490.7 million worldwide seven years ago. This latest installment is pegged to open in an almost identical range.

These tracking numbers also put it on par with 2011's "Rise of the Planet of the Apes," which kicked off the Caesar trilogy. That film opened to $54.8 million on its way to $176.7 million domestically and $305 million internationally for a $481.8 million global finish. When these films arrive with good reviews and good word of mouth, they have a loyal, built-in audience that will show up. Case in point, even Tim Burton's terribly reviewed 2001 "Planet of the Apes" remake got to $362.2 million worldwide in its day.

The latest entry in the franchise is set several generations after Caesar's reign, with apes now the dominant species living harmoniously, while humans reside in the shadows. Wes Ball, who helmed the "Maze Runner" trilogy, is in the director's chair for this one. The cast includes the likes of Owen Teague ("It"), Freya Allan ("The Witcher"), Kevin Durand ("Abigail"), and William H. Macy ("Shameless").

This movie benefits from being connected to what came before while also seemingly offering new audiences a jumping-on point. Given that it is hundreds of years removed from the events of "War," one could probably watch this one without seeing the last three "Apes" films. To what degree "Kingdom" suffers (or benefits) from its franchise-record 145-minute running time remains to be seen. That said, it has next to nothing by way of direct competition, save for "The Fall Guy" in its second weekend. Beyond that, the following weekend sees the release of the family-friendly "If," "The Strangers: Chapter 1," and the Amy Winehouse biopic "Back to Black," none of which will be stepping directly on this movie's toes.

"Apes" won't face any super stiff, direct competition until "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" and "The Garfield Movie" arrive on May 24. As a result, this film has the opportunity to dominate for much of the month, particularly if word of mouth is good. Having seen 13 minutes of "Kingdom" at CinemaCon, I can say with confidence that this one figures to be a crowd-pleaser.

The lingering question is whether it will play closer to "Rise" or 2014's "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes," which took in a shocking $710 million worldwide. "Kingdom" shouldn't have to bear the weight of such lofty expectations. It should be fine if it clears $400 million worldwide. The other thing to consider is that both "Dawn" and "War" made roughly 70% of their money overseas, with a sizable chunk coming from China. Can this become one of the rare pandemic-era Hollywood blockbusters to break out in the Middle Kingdom? We'll know soon enough.

"Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" hits theaters on May 10, 2024.