Abigail Seeks To Break The Bad Streak For Vampires At The Box Office

Horror has been a real anchor for the box office in the pandemic era, with franchises like "Halloween" and originals like "M3GAN" managing to break through in a meaningful way. Now, Universal Pictures is looking to strike with something original while also playing in familiar territory with "Abigail." The upcoming horror film deals with vampires, something Universal has done dating back to the original "Dracula" more than 90 years ago. But this one comes with a pretty unique spin on the tried-and-true genre. The question is, will it be enough to motivate moviegoers to turn up for a vampire movie? Or will this be another unfortunate misfire for the studio?

Radio Silence, the team that includes Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett ("Ready or Not," "Scream VI"), directed the film. They've got a very good track record and Universal is hoping that they can work their magic once again. As it stands, things look pretty good. "Abigail" is currently tracking to bring in between $12 and $22 million when it opens next weekend, per Box Office Pro. Granted, that is a wide range but further working in the movie's favor is the very solid buzz in the early going.

/Film's own BJ Colangelo called "Abigail" a "perfect horror movie" in her review. It currently holds an 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is quite good for a horror film. While critical buzz doesn't always translate to box office dollars, it sure as hell never hurts. And it can certainly motivate horror fans, who are one of the most loyal audiences out there. The film will open against Guy Ritchie's "The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare" and Bleeker Street's very bizarre "Sasquatch Sunset." Neither of those are competing directly with this one, which is good news. It will also have been a full two weeks since "The First Omen" opened, meaning there will have been plenty of space to give audiences a chance to breathe.

The film centers on a group of criminals who kidnap a 12-year-old ballerina daughter of a powerful underworld figure. To collect a $50 million ransom, all they have to do is watch the girl overnight in an isolated mansion. However, they soon discover that they're locked inside with a very abnormal (and deadly) little girl. The cast includes Melissa Barrera ("Scream"), Dan Stevens ("Legion"), Kathryn Newton ("Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania"), William Catlett ("Black Lightning"), Kevin Durand ("X-Men Origins: Wolverine"), the late Angus Cloud ("Euphoria"), and Alisha Weir ("Matilda the Musical").

Universal has tried very hard to make vampires work cinematically as of late. Last year, the studio suffered not one but two very high-profile flops involving Dracula. "Renfield," which starred Nicolas Cage as the famed vampire, topped out at just $27 million against a $65 million budget. Similarly, "The Last Voyage of the Demeter" topped out at just shy of $22 million against a $45 million budget. Both were very costly, radically different takes on the genre. The hope, then, is that "Abigail" is different and unique enough to pique the interest of moviegoers on a larger scale.

As far as comparisons go, if it opens around $12 million, it would be in the same neighborhood as Blumhouse's "Night Swim," which topped out at $54 million worldwide earlier this year. If it opens closer to $22 million, it could do "Evil Dead Rise" numbers, with that film having topped out at $147 million worldwide last year. The big unknown factor right now is the budget, but one assumes Universal kept this in the same range as Radio Silence's other recent hits. "Scream VI," for example, cost $35 million. Anything over $40 million would make things tricky. We'll see where the chips fall soon enough.

"Abigail" hits theaters on April 19, 2024.