Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Needs To Bust The Box Office To Feel Good

Back in 2021, when the theatrical landscape felt far less certain as theaters were still in recovery mode due to the pandemic, "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" arrived to reasonably positive reviews while being embraced by fans in a way the 2016 female-led reboot (all due respect) was not. As a result, we're getting a sequel in the form of "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire," which is due to hit theaters next weekend. The question is, can this bigger sequel do better numbers at the box office? Sony needs the answer to be yes.

Director Gil Kenan's "Frozen Empire" is currently expected to pull in between $35 and $47 million on its opening weekend, per Box Office Pro. That would put it in a similar range as its predecessor; "Afterlife" debuted to $44 million back in November 2021. That movie finished its run with $204 million worldwide, including $129 million domestically. At face value, that seems like a good start for the latest entry in this long-running franchise. But there is a little more to it than that.

The budget for "Frozen Empire" has yet to be revealed, and that's important because it certainly looks more expensive than its predecessor. Not to mention the primary cast members undoubtedly got raises to return this time around. Therein lies the rub.

"Afterlife" worked (financially speaking) because Sony kept the budget relatively low, around $75 million. That means $204 million worldwide can be considered a win – especially by pandemic standards. But let's say the budget for the sequel is $100 million or more. That means the studio would need the film to get much closer to $300 million worldwide to justify the cost. That's where things get tricky, particularly with the numbers we're currently looking at.

"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" once again centers on the Spengler family as they head back to where it all started: the iconic New York City firehouse. There, they team up with the original Ghostbusters, who've developed a top-secret research lab to develop ghost-busting tech. When an ancient artifact unleashes an army of ghosts upon the city, they must band together to protect their home and save the world from a new Ice Age. Returning cast members include Paul Rudd, Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace, Celeste O'Connor, Logan Kim, Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, and Ernie Hudson. Kumail Nanjiani, Patton Oswalt, and Annie Potts also star.

2016's "Ghostbusters" actually made more than "Afterlife," pulling in $229 million worldwide. The problem with that film, aside from the mixed reception, was the fact that it had a huge $144 million budget. The hope here is that Sony learned from the mistakes of the past and didn't give Kenan an oversized budget. Even so, it seems almost impossible to imagine that they made a movie with many more VFX shots and a bigger cast for less than nine figures.

So, where can Sony get the extra box office that's needed to make this sequel a success? If tracking holds, that money probably won't come from domestic ticket sales. That means the studio might be hoping that overseas audiences turn out in higher numbers. That said, this has never been a franchise that has played particularly well outside of North America, so it could be an uphill battle.

On the other hand, this is a franchise that can make up a lot of ground with merchandise sales and other revenue streams. There's also a chance that those opening weekend projections could go up if the reviews are good and fans respond well to the material.

"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" hits theaters on March 22, 2024.