Mark Wahlberg's Arthur The King Could Be An Under-The-Radar Box Office Hit In The Making

Mark Wahlberg hasn't had a movie in theaters in a couple of years, but he's about to stage a comeback with "Arthur the King." Hailing from Lionsgate, the true story-inspired movie centers on adventure racer Michael Light and a street dog that he befriends during a crucial moment in his life. So, can this man and his dog tale help bring Wahlberg some glory at the box office? Even though that success may be relatively understated, it's looking very much like that could be the case.

The audience-friendly flick hits theaters next weekend, where it will be opening against "The American Society of Magical Negroes" (which figures to have a muted debut). Kristen Stewart's "Love Lies Bleeding" is also expanding into more theaters, although it also figures to have a somewhat limited footprint. This is to say, "Arthur the King" will probably do the best of the weekend's newcomers, with director Simon Cellan Jones' film eyeing an opening somewhere between $11 million and $16 million, per Box Office Pro. It probably won't top the charts (holdovers "Kung Fu Panda 4" and "Dune: Part Two" are poised to duke it out for first and second place), but this movie was never meant to compete for the crown.

Basically, Lionsgate is using this film as counterprogramming. It truly doesn't have any direct competition in the family-friendly, middle-of-the-road drama department. This is a feel-good story that could play very well in middle America. If you don't want an animated movie and giant sci-fi epics aren't your thing, this could end up being the de facto next choice for moviegoers. Given that eOne helped foot the budget, and with Lionsgate distributing, it's wise to assume it kept the cost relatively low. Perhaps not as low as Wahlberg's lowkey hit "Father Stu" ($4 million budget/$21 million box office), but low nonetheless. Let's say less than $30 million and it's got a shot at doing well for itself.

"Arthur the King" follows Michael (Wahlberg) and a scrappy street dog companion dubbed Arthur. Light is desperate for one last chance to win and convinces a sponsor to back him and a team of athletes for the Adventure Racing World Championship in the Dominican Republic. As the team is pushed to their outer limits, Arthur ends up following them on their journey. The cast also includes Simu Liu ("Barbie"), Nathalie Emmanuel ("Fast X"), and Ali Suliman ("Jack Ryan"). It is based on the book "Arthur: The Dog Who Crossed the Jungle to Find a Home" by Mikael Lindnord.

Wahlberg's two most recent movies — "Me Time" and "The Family Plan" — both went directly to streaming. As a result, he hasn't had the chance to demonstrate his prowess at the box office for a little while. The hope here is that 2021's "Joe Bell" ($1.7 million worldwide) was a fluke of a flop resulting from the pandemic, rather than a real indication of the actor's appeal in non-franchise projects.

While critics have yet to weigh in on this one, it does feel like the kind of movie that is somewhat critic-proof. Audiences that turned up to see "A Dog's Purpose," for example, aren't likely to be turned away by negative reviews. They either want to watch Wahlberg pal around with a cute, scrappy dog or they don't. If the movie does open in the $15 million range, it will be well-positioned to potentially leg out and become a mid-budget winner, which is where Lionsgate excels.

Similarly, Channing Tatum's "Dog" opened to $15 million in 2022 when it faced off against Wahlberg's "Uncharted," oddly enough. The charming man and dog story legged out to $85 million worldwide, never climbing past number two on the charts. If all goes well, Wahlberg's latest could find itself on a very similar trajectory.

"Arthur the King" hits theaters on March 15, 2024.