Oppenheimer's Success Proves Dune: Part Two Could Be A True Box Office Messiah

It's been a long first couple of months of 2024 at the box office. Overall, ticket sales are down 15% compared to this same point in 2023, and following the rough few years that theaters had thanks to the pandemic, this is a dangerous downturn for the industry. But a savior is on the horizon and his name is Paul Atreides. More accurately, his name is Timothée Chalamet, who leads the star-studded cast of the much-anticipated "Dune: Part Two," which finally arrives in theaters on Friday after being pushed back several months by Warner Bros. It turns out that may be a wise move, as this is now poised to be a much bigger hit than its predecessor — one that may mirror, in some ways, one of the biggest hits of last year: Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer."

Director Denis Villeneuve's "Dune" sequel is currently expected to pull in between $60 and $80 million on opening weekend, per Variety. That would be a significant increase compared to the first film, which opened to $41 million in 2021, albeit under much worse circumstances due to the pandemic and the fact that it was simultaneously released directly to HBO Max in the U.S. Be that as it may, it legged out to just over $400 million worldwide in its original run, which was a great number for a challenging sci-fi blockbuster at that time, even given its $165 million budget.

What's interesting is that another bleak blockbuster from an auteur filmmaker recently made a great deal of money last year. "Oppenheimer," despite opening directly against "Barbie," pulled in more than $950 million worldwide en route to a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. It too boasts an incredible ensemble cast and is sort of the antithesis to much of what we've seen from blockbusters in recent years, most notably the glitzy fun of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

We've started seeing a change in audience tastes as of late. Every live-action superhero movie flopped theatrically last year, save for "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3." Yet, an R-rated biopic about the guy who made the A-bomb made nearly $1 billion. Am I saying that "Oppenheimer" is exactly like "Dune: Part Two" as a film? Absolutely not. We're talking about a grounded biopic versus a big sci-fi sequel as part of a franchise that people have already bought into. But the similarities here are worth pointing out. Perhaps most interesting of all? "Oppenheimer" opened to $82 million last year, right at the top end of expectations for Villeneuve's $190 million sequel. That bodes well.

Further working in this movie's favor, early critical praise has been over the moon, with some calling it one of the greatest sequels ever made. Buzz like that can help move the needle. Plus, the recent re-release of the first "Dune" ended up grossing more than $30 million globally. That suggests a very strong appetite for the follow-up. It's also going to be the first legitimate blockbuster to open in months, and is going to be the first movie to make more than $50 million on opening weekend since "Five Nights at Freddy's" ($80 million) back in October of last year. That's surely music to the industry's ears right now.

Not for nothing, but the sequel's cast is even more impressive than the 2021 film's, particularly its younger stars. Chalamet is coming off of "Wonka," which has made more than $600 million worldwide (and counting). Austin Butler is coming off of "Elvis," which was a massive hit that netted him an Oscar nod, and Zendaya has only become an even bigger A-lister since the first film came out (in no small part thanks to "Spider-Man: No Way Home").

Beloved filmmaker, a stacked cast, great reviews, a lack of competition, and changing audience tastes in this movie's favor: This could be a perfect storm for a breakout hit. We spoke more about this on today's episode of the /Film Daily podcast, which you can listen to below:

"Dune: Part Two" hits theaters on March 1, 2024.