Is Madame Web Going To Become The Next Superhero Bomb At The Box Office?

The box office is in desperate need of saving right now. January relied almost entirely on holdovers from 2023 like "Wonka" and "Anyone But You" to help get theaters by, with only a few new movies such as "Mean Girls" and "The Beekeeper" to liven up the joint. Unfortunately, films like "I.S.S." failed to connect with the general public. So, can the next Marvel superhero adventure be the hero we need right now? Maybe not. Sony's "Madame Web" is due to hit theaters on Valentine's Day and, while these comic book adaptations were money in the bank for well over a decade in Hollywood, times have changed. This, it appears, is going to play more like "Morbius" and less like "Venom."

Directed by S.J. Clarkson, "Madame Web" stars Dakota Johnson ("Fifty Shades of Grey") in the lead role with a supporting cast that includes Sydney Sweeney ("Euphoria"), Isabela Merced ("Sweet Girl"), Emma Roberts ("American Horror Story"), and Adam Scott ("Parks and Recreation"). It tells the story of a paramedic in Manhattan who develops the power to see the future. Star power be damned, the numbers are, at present, not looking super-heroic. Box Office Pro has the film taking in between $20 and $29 million on its opening weekend. The film is opening mid-week, meaning it will have Wednesday and Thursday on its side as well. But it's also facing some competition in the form of a musical legend.

"Bob Marley: One Love" is also opening on the same day to get in on the robust holiday weekend as President's Day falls on the Monday after Valentine's Day. As we previously reported, early tracking has the biopic pulling in between $27 and $33 million through its first six days of release. Sony's latest "Spider-Man" spin-off, meanwhile, was looking at around $25 million during that same stretch. The edge, at least in the early going, went to "One Love."

Be that as it may, it looks like it's going to be a tight race. That said, coming in number one isn't what's important here. What we're looking at is a Marvel movie that is, in all likelihood, going to open below "Morbius," which debuted at just $39 million in 2022 before topping out with just $167 million worldwide. That film, as part of Sony's ever-expanding "Spider-Man" spin-off universe, was met with lousy reviews and its greatest legacy was a slew of internet memes. The only saving grace was the movie's very reasonable budget, which was said to be in the $75 million range.

Luckily, Sony also kept the budget reasonable for "Madame Web," with the film costing less than $100 million. Yes, that's still a lot of money, but it's cheap for a superhero film. That means the Marvel Comics adaptation can avoid becoming a financial catastrophe even with a soft opening weekend. But if it suffers a massive drop in its second weekend and, like "Morbius," suffers terrible reviews, it might still have a tough time making its money back. At best, it's going to deliver modest ticket sales, and theaters need more than that right now to hang their hopes on.

2023 was a watershed year for superhero cinema. "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" was the only outright successful live-action comic book film last year, with "The Flash," "Blue Beetle," "Shazam! Fury of the Gods," "The Marvels," and "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" all greatly disappointing against sky-high expectations. Sony did score an animated hit with "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" but outside of that, it was tough sledding. In the early going, it appears things won't be any easier in 2024 and beyond. There is no longer a presumed level of success just because that Marvel logo is stamped on a project.

"Madame Web" hits theaters on February 14, 2024.