Can Matthew Vaughn's Argylle Rescue The Box Office?

Things are bleak right now at the box office. January only had a few wide-release movies led by "The Beekeeper" and "Mean Girls" to help keep theaters afloat. There's been a significant downturn in ticket sales and the industry can ill-afford such things after the pandemic decimated theater owners. So, who is coming to the rescue? The hope is that it will be Matthew Vaughn with his latest spy flick, "Argylle." Whether or not audiences will turn up in a meaningful way for the original blockbuster remains to be seen.

The film hails from Apple Original Films and will eventually make its way to Apple TV+. Fortunately, much like "Killers of the Flower Moon" and "Napoleon" before it, Apple is giving this one a wide theatrical release, with Universal Pictures handling distribution. In the early going, the numbers appear to be so-so for this one. "Argylle" is currently expected to open between $20 and $30 million this weekend, per Box Office Pro. That would be a marked improvement over what's been going on recently, but it's not the blockbuster shot in the arm the industry is hoping for. To that end, Deadline recently reported that the film is expected to open "in the teens," which would be an even less spectacular debut.

Given that its only direct competition is Lionsgate's "Scrambled," which is expected to open in the $2 to $5 million range, Vaughn's big-budget comedic spy thriller will easily win the day. It's just a matter of whether or not that's going to be enough to move the needles for theaters for a couple of weeks until "Bob Marley: One Love" and "Madame Web" open on Valentine's Day. In fairness, Focus Features does have "Lisa Frankenstein" due out on February 9 but that horror/comedy doesn't seem poised to light the box office on fire either. These are indeed dark times.

"Argylle" centers on reclusive author Elly Conway who is behind a series of best-selling espionage novels. But when the plots of Elly's fictional books — which focus on a secret agent named Argylle — begin to mirror a real-life spy organization, she is unwittingly thrust into the action alongside her cat. Accompanied by a cat-allergic spy named Aiden, they race across the world to stay one step ahead of the killers. The cast is led by Bryce Dallas Howard ("Jurassic World") and Sam Rockwell ("Jojo Rabbit"). But they are just part of an A-list ensemble that also includes Henry Cavill ("Man of Steel"), John Cena ("Fast X"), Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story"), Dua Lipa ("Barbie"), Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"), and Samuel L. Jackson ("The Avengers").

That cast works in the film's favor, to be certain. Whether or not they will help put actual meat in seats is another question entirely. What this movie is going to live or die by is word of mouth. It may not do gangbusters business on opening weekend, but if audiences dig it, viewers could keep turning up week-to-week. That would be ideal. Though Vaughn's films do sort of have a ceiling. The filmmaker's previous efforts include "Kingsman: The Secret Service" ($36 million opening/$405 million worldwide) and "X-Men: First Class" ($55 million opening/$355 million worldwide).

Fortunately, Apple doesn't need this movie to profit in theaters. Yes, they invested a reported $200 million in the project. That said, this is ultimately a streaming play for the tech company. They just know that they can recoup a percentage of that investment with a theatrical release while bringing more attention to the eventual streaming release. In the meantime, it's a movie theaters need badly. It would be nice if this ends up being one of those examples of a film over performing against modest expectations, but that might just be wishful thinking. We'll see how it shakes out.

"Argylle" hits theaters on February 2, 2024.