A New Jurassic World Movie Is A Box Office No-Brainer

It was recently revealed that Universal Pictures is developing a new movie in the "Jurassic World" franchise, with David Koepp penning the screenplay. That was big news because Koepp, who has frequently collaborated with director Steven Spielberg during his long career, penned the script for the original "Jurassic Park." Given the love that movie still has more than 30 years later, it's a big deal. And, given that Koepp hasn't worked on this franchise since "The Lost World," it's a curious development. That part was, indeed, surprising. What should not surprise anyone, though, is the fact that Universe is making another movie set in this universe.

There are undoubtedly those amongst you who groaned when thinking about another one of these movies. To say that the "Jurassic World" trilogy is divisive would be an understatement. Critics generally hated the films (particularly "Fallen Kingdom" and "Dominion"), but all three of them were widely embraced by general audiences, particularly 2015's "Jurassic World." Director Colin Trevorrow's legacy sequel worked like gangbusters and ensured sequels would follow. That now extends beyond a trilogy, and for good reason.

The fact of the matter is that these movies have been tremendously successful. Without debating the merits of the films creatively, financially speaking, it's undeniable. The "Jurassic World" trilogy pulled in a combined $4 billion at the global box office. That's to say nothing of what Universal earned through cable rights, Blu-ray/DVD sales, merchandise, and other revenue streams. This is a cash cow, pure and simple. And as we all know, Hollywood will milk such cows dry. That's just the nature of the business. For Universal, it's an absolute no-brainer.

The larger "Jurassic" franchise has grossed $6 billion collectively across six movies spanning over 30 years. What's more, the average budget for these films is $130 million, which is a bargain relative to what they pull in ($1 billion on average a piece), especially when looking at how expensive franchise films tend to be these days (with $200 million having become more of a rule than an exception). To that end, "Fallen Kingdom" was made for $170 million, while "Dominion" cost $165 million despite having to endure costly setbacks due to the pandemic.

What little we do know about this new film is that it's expected to launch the next "era" for the franchise. That implies that characters like Chris Pratt's Owen Grady and Bryce Dallas Howard's Claire Dearing won't be the focus. It also means Universal probably won't have to pay higher cast salaries that come with sequels to successful films. So, it can probably, once again, keep the budget below $200 million, which sets the studio up for success. The math simply makes too much sense to ignore.

"Dominion" is a bit of an elephant in the room. Yes, it's one of very few movies to reach the coveted $1 billion box office milestone since the pandemic began. That said, the critical reception is hard to ignore and, even amongst general moviegoers, the reception felt soft compared to the first two "Jurassic World" films. Not only that, but the film ended with dinosaurs living in the world amongst humans. Where can the story go if this is a continuation? Are they going to run the risk of jumping the shark? Possibly. But Koepp's involvement suggests things are moving in a different direction. For now, it's not worth speculating on the specifics.

If we assume that Koepp and whoever winds up in the director's chair can avoid a wholly ridiculous "'Planet of the Apes' but with dinosaurs" take that runs the risk of being rejected by audiences, there's no reason to think people won't show up for another one of these movies. And, to be clear, if Universal keeps the budget under control, it doesn't need the movie to make $1 billion or anywhere near that. With merchandise and other revenue streams as a safety net, the risk is minimal and the upside potential is massive.

Another big-picture thing to consider is that Universal doesn't have much by way of live-action franchises to lean on right now. The main "Fast & Furious" franchise is wrapping up. (Frankly, the budgets have gotten so out of control that those movies are becoming financially tricky to navigate anyhow.) The Universal Monsters films are now low-budget affairs being handled by Blumhouse in the hopes of a higher rate of return, which also rules them out as true blockbuster plays. And it's not like we're getting "Oppenheimer 2."

The studio's other biggest franchises are those produced by animation powerhouses Illumination and DreamWorks, such as "Minions" and "How to Train Your Dragon." Perhaps not coincidentally, a live-action "How to Train Your Dragon" movie is currently in the works. "Jurassic World" is truly the studio's only current, live-action blockbuster franchise. That, coupled with the wildly successful track record, means this was always going to happen. It's a good move for the health of the studio, and with the state of the box office being as uncertain as it's ever been, a sure thing is almost irresponsible to ignore.

The new "Jurassic World" movie does not currently have a release date.