Can The Sci-Fi Thriller I.S.S. Defy The Odds At The Box Office?

The release calendar for new movies over the next couple of weeks could best be described using an image of a tumbleweed lazily making its way across a desolate road. January has always been known as a dump month for Hollywood but this year is particularly bad as so many movies were pushed to later this year (or into 2025) due to the strikes last year. But it's not as though we have nothing coming down the pipeline. To that end, Bleecker Street is bringing an original sci-fi thriller in the form of "I.S.S." to a theater near you next weekend. Can it defy the odds and become a relatively rare original sci-fi hit?

As it stands, the film figures to have a muted debut. Box Office Pro currently has director Gabriela Cowperthwaite's latest taking in anywhere between $2 and $7 million on opening weekend. That's a pretty wide range but even at the top end we're not talking about a huge sum of money. It will, in all likelihood, be settling for landing somewhere outside the top three on the charts as holdovers like "Mean Girls," "The Beekeeper," and the shockingly resilient "Wonka" figure to be bigger draws for moviegoers.

The post-MLK holiday weekend is often a slow one. 2023 saw Sony's "Missing" open to $9 million, debuting at number four on the charts behind "Avatar: The Way of Water," "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish," and "M3GAN." All the same, that movie went on to make nearly $49 million worldwide against a $7 million budget. So "I.S.S." isn't necessarily dead in the water. But its success or failure relies on one crucial factor question; how much did it cost to make? That's the make-or-break factor here.

"I.S.S." sees tensions flare in the near future aboard the International Space Station as a worldwide conflict breaks out on Earth. The U.S. and Russian astronauts are both ordered to take control of the station by any means necessary for their respective countries. The trailer has painted it as a slasher movie of sorts in space, which is a good angle. The cast includes Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story"), John Gallagher Jr. ("10 Cloverfield Lane"), Chris Messina ("Air"), Maria Mashkova ("For All Mankind"), Pilou Asbæk ("Samaritan"), and Costa Ronin ("Homeland").

Bleecker Street is not a studio that has delivered big results at the box office, historically speaking. Their biggest movie to date is "Logan Lucky" ($49 million worldwide/$29 million budget). More commonly, they release movies like 2022's "Breaking" ($2.8 million box office) that make their money on VOD/streaming after the fact. They likely picked up this movie knowing that it fit their typical business model.

My best guess is that, despite some effects-heavy shots, it wasn't terribly expensive to make. If the budget is around $20 million or less, I think the film can still be a modest winner with some decent word of mouth. For what it's worth, it currently holds a very solid 93% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. There's also very little by way of direct competition coming for several weeks. The movie's biggest competition will be the NFL playoffs, which will be a big draw for many would-be moviegoers.

Meanwhile, original sci-fi remains a tough sell in the pandemic era. "The Creator" ($104 million worldwide/$80 million budget), "65" ($60 million worldwide/$45 million budget), and "Hypnotic" ($16 million worldwide/$65 million budget) all disappointed in theaters last year. But "M3GAN," another sci-fi movie with a horror angle, made $181 million worldwide. The odds of that happening are all but impossible but the right audience could find the movie along the way, if all goes well.

"I.S.S." is set to hit theaters on January 19, 2024.