Can The Mandalorian & Grogu Revive Star Wars At The Box Office?

The future of "Star Wars" recently came into focus as Disney and Lucasfilm announced the movie that will welcome a galaxy far, far away back to the big screen. Oddly enough, it's going to be centered on the characters that have helped anchor "Star Wars" on the small screen since 2019. "The Mandalorian & Grogu" will be directed by Jon Favreau, with the film set to go into production in 2024. Indeed, it will be Mando and the one they call Baby Yoda who will help bring the franchise back to theaters after years away. One big question now looms very large: Will a TV show turned into a movie translate to meaningful box office dollars?

There are far too many unknowns right now to accurately predict this movie's commercial performance, but there are some key things we do know. For one, "The Mandalorian" has been extremely popular, with Pedra Pascal's Din Djarin (aka Mando) and Grogu ranking as arguably the most beloved characters created during the Disney era of "Star Wars." Favreau also has an incredible commercial track record with Disney, having directed 2016's "The Jungle Book" ($966 million worldwide), 2019's "The Lion King" ($1.65 billion worldwide), and the movie that launched the Marvel Cinematic Universe, "Iron Man" ($585 million worldwide).

We also know that audiences haven't had the chance to enjoy "Star Wars" on the silver screen in quite some time. "The Rise of Skywalker," which was released in December 2019, was the last movie within the franchise to hit theaters. It was met with a mixed response and, ever since, this vast galaxy has existed on Disney+. Outside of the Mando-verse, we've had shows like "Obi-Wan Kenobi" and "Andor" holding down the fort. Another lingering question is whether or not that has done more harm than good.

Disney had to double down on streaming during the pandemic, which arrived in early 2020 just as "The Rise of Skywalker" was finishing its $1 billion theatrical run. Disney+ had launched only months earlier and both Marvel and "Star Wars" were going to be major anchors for the service. "The Mandalorian" proved to be almost universally appealing to viewers, which was in stark contrast to the divisive nature of the sequel trilogy. That was undoubtedly a good thing that the franchise needed, but it may have created another problem that the studio now has to contend with.

As we've seen with Pixar and the Marvel Cinematic Universe, having a ton of TV shows and movies available for free on a streaming service doesn't help a brand's box office potential. Disney CEO Bob Iger even said as much last year, acknowledging that releasing so much on Disney+ had an impact on audiences. This is something Iger is seeking to correct, but changing audience habits is easier said than done. Pandora's Box is difficult to close. Once viewers know they can get something at home for "free," it is tough to get them to pay for that thing in theaters again.

This is to say, "Star Wars" may now be facing the same issue that Pixar and the MCU are contending with. Yes, "The Mandalorian" and its characters are very popular, but they've been popular on TV from the comfort of home as part of a Disney+ subscription. Is that popularity going to translate to theatrical viability? Or is this going to be another "Solo: A Star Wars Story" ($393 million worldwide/$275 million budget) situation where Lucasfilm overestimates the demand for something? Han Solo is popular, but audiences didn't necessarily need an origin story. Granted, it's not an apples-to-apples thing, but the larger point remains.

"Solo" had much bigger issues to contend with, including a change in directors and a wildly inflated budget. But come 2026 (when Favreau's movie will probably be released), Disney and Lucasfilm will need a sure thing to welcome "Star Wars" back to theaters. They can't afford a disappointment. That said, given how expensive the show is to produce, there's an argument to be made that spending comparable money on a movie makes more financial sense. What Disney wants to avoid is bad optics and negative ink being spilled when it comes to this flagship franchise. They have lots of other "Star Wars" movies in development and Disney, frankly, needs them to deliver at the box office.

What can a TV show turned into a movie do at the box office? On one end of the spectrum, we have "The Simpsons Movie," which took a show that had been on the air for two decades and turned it into a $536 million hit. But that was before the pandemic. More recently, "The Bob's Burgers Movie" tanked in theaters, grossing just $34 million worldwide. Audiences are far more accustomed to getting these things at home now. The idea of paying to see a long episode of a show they can watch at home for free doesn't gel like it used to. But "Star Wars" is another beast entirely.

The hope here is that audiences will be ready to experience "Star Wars" on the big screen again after a long break. If Favreau delivers the goods, the whole "this used to be a TV show" thing may not matter. If this play-it-safe bet pays off, we'll have a better chance at seeing stuff like James Mangold's Dawn of the Jedi movie actually come to fruition. One thing is certain: The pressure is on for Favreau and Lucasfilm President Kathleen Kennedy to deliver a hit, and they've hinged their hopes on a bounty hunter and his little green friend.

"The Mandalorian & Grogu" does not currently have a release date.