The 2024 Box Office Looks Grim, But Here's A Best Case Scenario

2023 has been, broadly speaking, a very good year at the box office. The domestic total for the year will be at or near $9 billion — far exceeding 2022's $7.366 billion total, representing an increase of more than 20 percent year-over-year. More than that, the top three movies of the year, which are "Barbie" ($1.44 billion), "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" ($1.36 billion), and "Oppenheimer" ($953 million), were not sequels. It's the first time in decades that this has been the case. Unfortunately, the party is going to come to a screeching halt in January as the 2024 release calendar is a barren wasteland, at least for the first chunk of the year.

The Hollywood Reporter recently reported that the 2024 domestic box office could take a hit as large as $2 billion. That would be devastating, to put it lightly. Movie theaters have been operating on anything but stable ground since the pandemic arrived in 2020. The good news is that the industry has been gradually recovering ever since. The total global box office for 2020 topped out at just $11.8 billion, then rebounded to $21.3 billion in 2021. It was even better in 2022, coming in at $26 billion. Granted, we're still miles away from pre-pandemic totals but a slow and steady recovery is expected to get us back there, or at least close to it.

Shaving $2 billion off the top next year in North America alone would be brutal. Ben Pearson and I recently discussed the dire state of things in early 2024 on the /Film Daily podcast. Thanks in large part to the Writers Guild of America and Screen Actors Guild strikes that dragged on for months, there are far fewer movies scheduled to release next year, which is going to lead to the expected downturn. That said, $2 billion is a worst-case scenario. What about the best-case scenario? Let's explore that avenue.

The big issue facing the industry is the number of total wide releases on the calendar in 2024. By the end of 2023, there will have been just shy of 100 wide-release movies in theaters. As it stands, 2024 is hovering around a projected 82, with the first quarter of the year especially bare until "Dune: Part Two" arrives on March 1, 2024. That is a significant decline, and it stands to reason that, with fewer movies in theaters, the overall box office will see a downturn. Especially considering that many of the movies that were delayed to 2025 and beyond were huge blockbusters such as "Mission: Impossible 8" and "Captain America: Brave New World," among others.

But again, let's look at the positives here. For one, new movies are being added to the calendar every day it seems, including titles with enormous upside potential. Lionsgate recently announced "Saw XI" for a September release, coming just a year after "Saw X" grossed more than $109 million worldwide. Lionsgate also has "White Bird," a prequel to 2017's "Wonder," on deck for October next year. Let us not forget that "Wonder" took in $306 million against a mere $20 million budget in its day, and those are just a couple of examples.

We're also already seeing examples of studios doing their part to help fill out the first chunk of the year. Disney recently announced that Pixar's "Soul," "Luca," and "Turning Red," all of which were dumped directly to Disney+ thanks to the pandemic, will finally be getting proper theatrical releases beginning in January. Other studios could follow with similar re-releases, possibly timed to significant anniversaries. "The LEGO Movie" ($468 million worldwide) turns 10 and "The Passion of the Christ" ($622 million worldwide) turns 20 in February, if anyone is looking for ideas. There are ways to fill the voids, and studios are already trying to do so, it seems.

Let's assume that the first chunk of the year does fill out a bit. What happens in March and beyond? Yes, several high-profile releases have been pushed to 2025, which hurts. But if 2023 has taught us anything it's that audiences are very much ready to return to theaters and they will do so for the right movies. And in many cases, those aren't the superhero movies or franchise reboots that have been propping up the business for years now. The whole Barbenheimer phenomenon alone proved that. "Five Nights at Freddy's" was also a good example of how to get younger moviegoers out en masse.

The 2024 calendar is littered with films that have the chance to get folks excited about going to the movies, beginning with "Dune: Part Two" in March. The first film made more than $400 million worldwide even while the pandemic was a much larger factor. The sequel figures to do better than its predecessor. Similarly, "Godzilla x Kong" feels like a movie that could do better than "Godzilla vs. Kong." These are just a couple of examples. Blumhouse's "Imaginary," the "Mean Girls" musical, and even "Bad Boys 4," among others, feel like slept-on movies that can help soften the blow next year. All is not lost.

Studios know they can't leave theaters hanging out to dry. AMC — the largest theater chain in the world — is in dangerously massive debt. Regal is no better off after its parent company filed for bankruptcy. Hollywood needs these theater chains to survive, and they can't weather another miserable year. Both sides have every motivation to find a way to ride out a rough situation. Is it going to be bad? Almost certainly. Is it assuredly going to be as bad as many in the industry are predicting? It doesn't have to be, and if things go well, it may not be as apocalyptic as some would have you believe. 

Again, with optimism in place.