Can The Hunger Games Prequel Recapture The YA Box Office Magic For Lionsgate?

After nearly a decade, one of the biggest YA franchises is making its return to the big screen. Lionsgate couldn't have jumped faster when author Suzanne Collins announced a prequel novel to her smash hit "Hunger Games" series, with the studio cutting a deal to turn the book into a movie in the blink of an eye. That movie is now upon us in the form of "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes." Taking place decades before the original films, the prequel is focused on a young Coriolanus Snow. The question is, do audiences care as much without Katniss Everdeen out front and center? Can this movie recapture some of that box office magic from years past?

"The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes" is eyeing an opening weekend in the $50 million range, according to tracking numbers provided by Deadline. That is pretty much in line with the folks at Box Office Pro, which have the film in the $38 to $50 million range in its debut. Right off the top, that would easily be a franchise low, well below the franchise's current least-grossing film, "The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2," which had a $102 million opening and made $645 million worldwide. "Songbirds and Snakes," however, doesn't have to open to $100 million or more to be considered a success. Not by a long shot.

One encouraging factor is that Lionsgate managed to keep the budget in check for this one, with the cost pegged at around $100 million. Yes, that's still expensive, but it would be the second-cheapest film in the series with only the original "Hunger Games," with its $80 million budget, being produced for less. The sequels were far more pricey, with "Mockingjay — Part 2" costing a whopping $160 million. The fact that the studio apparently didn't overspend is going to help a great deal here.

A prequel to "The Hunger Games" that doesn't star Jennifer Lawrence was always going to have somewhat muted potential at the box office. It's also been a long time since these movies were at the peak of their cultural relevance. The studio probably didn't make"Songbirds and Snakes" assuming that they were going to get another $700 to $800 million global hit. They can still, in all likelihood, have a solid return if all goes well. It's just about managing expectations.

If we assume the film does open to around $50 million, that would put it in the same ballpark as movies like "Uncharted" ($44 million opening/$407 million worldwide) or "Shazam!" ($53 million opening/$367 million worldwide). If "Songbirds and Snakes" can do anywhere near that level of business, Lionsgate can count this as a win, especially since it will probably bring renewed attention to the original quartet of films, which earned a combined $2.95 billion worldwide between 2012 and 2015. It remains Lionsgate's biggest franchise to date — and it's frankly not even close.

Francis Lawrence returns to the director's chair for the prequel, having helmed the prior three entries in the series. The prequel centers on an 18-year-old Coriolanus Snow, who is the last hope for his fading lineage, a once-proud family that has fallen from grace in a post-war Capitol. With the 10th annual Hunger Games fast approaching, the young Snow is assigned to mentor Lucy Gray Baird, a tribute from impoverished District 12. Tom Blyth ("The Gilded Age") and Rachel Zegler ("West Side Story") lead the cast.

For Lionsgate, this is a potentially golden opportunity to get back into blockbuster filmmaking with the closest thing they have in their arsenal to a sure thing. While the studio tends to excel when going for mid-budget affairs such as "Knives Out" or "La La Land," they have tried time and time again to enter the big-budget arena with limited success. More often than not, their efforts resulted in catastrophe; some examples include "Moonfall" ($67 million worldwide/$150 million budget), "Power Rangers" ($142 million worldwide/$100 million budget), and "Robin Hood" ($86 million box office/$100 million budget). There are plenty more one could cite but you get the idea.

"Hunger Games" gave the studio a taste of blockbuster money and they've been chasing that dragon ever since with little to show for it. Even the studio's other attempt at a YA franchise, "Divergent," proved to be a pretty big catastrophe, with the final entry being relegated to a TV movie that never came to pass. This is a studio hungry to get back into the blockbuster game in a meaningful way. A "Hunger Games" prequel is a logical way to do it, and it's a move that comes with far less risk than starting something from scratch.

"The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes" is set to hit theaters on November 17, 2023.