Can Killers Of The Flower Moon Become Scorsese's First Box Office Hit In A Decade?

Martin Scorsese, one of cinema's most celebrated living filmmakers, is returning with his first film in four years. Not only that, but he's reuniting with both of his most trusted collaborators as both Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert Deo Niro are starring in "Killers of the Flower Moon," an adaptation of David Grann's best-selling book of the same name. Even though Scorsese's very expensive passion project was produced for Apple TV+, the company has teamed with Paramount for a wide theatrical release next weekend. There are lots of appealing pieces on the board, but some big question marks as well. The biggest question of all: Can this be Scorsese's first bonafide box office hit in ten years?

The answer to that question is a little complicated as box office success is a bit more nuanced here than it might be for a film produced purely for a legacy studio rather than a big streaming service. Before diving into what success (or failure) might look like here, let's break down some numbers. "Killers of the Flower Moon" is currently tracking for a $24 million opening weekend according to Deadline. That number might actually be on the conservative side though as the folks at Box Office Pro have the film taking in anywhere between $29 and $38 million.

That could put it somewhere between "The Departed" ($26.8 million) and "Shutter Island" ($41 million) for potentially the second-biggest opening of Scorsese's career. On the surface, that sounds pretty damn good. And, quite frankly, for an R-rated, adult-focused drama that has no franchise ties, that is pretty damn good. The only problem? The movie cost $200 million to produce — before marketing. That's "Avengers" movie money, meaning it would need superhero-sized ticket sales to break even theatrically.

Fortunately, Apple didn't make this movie with the expectation that it would make its money back in theaters. It's similar to what Amazon did with Ben Affleck's "Air" earlier this year. They're looking to make some money and, ultimately, bring more attention to the eventual streaming release. Paramount is only invested as a distributor, so they're just on board to take a cut of the box office and, divorced from the budget, an opening weekend in the $30 to $40 million range would be a nice start. It would also be a particularly impressive start for a movie with a hulking runtime of 3 hours and 26 minutes. That makes it just three minutes shy of "The Irishman" as one of Scorsese's longest movies.

"Killers of the Flower Moon" is set in 1920s Oklahoma and focuses on the serial murder of members of the oil-wealthy Osage Nation. This series of brutal crimes came to be known as the Reign of Terror. Rather crucially, it marks the first time that Scorsese and DiCaprio have worked together since 2013's "The Wolf of Wall Street," which went on to make $406 million worldwide, becoming the highest-grossing film of the director's career. In fact, all five of Scorsese's biggest movies — a list that also includes "Shutter Island" ($299 million), "The Departed" ($289 million), "The Aviator" ($208 million), and "Gangs of New York" ($183 million) — all have starred DiCaprio.

While Scorsese's recent films have garnered much critical acclaim, "The Wolf of Wall Street" was his last theatrical hit. His follow-up, the 2016 religious epic "Silence," was a bomb, taking in just $23.7 million worldwide against a budget in the $50 million range. As for "The Irishman," Netflix shelled out more than $200 million for the gangster epic and gave it a limited theatrical release, mostly so it would qualify for awards season. It was nominated for ten Oscars, including Best Picture, but went home empty-handed. Scorsese's 2019 Bob Dylan documentary "Rolling Thunder Revue" was released directly to Netflix.

There is plenty of reason to be optimistic. For one, the film has nothing by way of direct competition, though Taylor Swift's "The Eras Tour" concert film will be in the second weekend of what looks to be a blockbuster run. That said, Swifties and Scorsese fans seem like they can stay out of one another's way well enough to make this a solid counter-programming situation. The following weekend's big release is "Five Nights at Freddy's," which is firmly for the younger, horror-loving crowd. So, for those looking for something more adult-skewing, Scorsese has some runway.

The other big thing to consider is the fact that Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" — an R-rated, three-hour biopic aimed squarely at adult moviegoers — is one of the biggest movies of 2023. It has made more than Marvel's "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" and currently sits at $939 million worldwide. That should absolutely give Paramount, Apple, and all involved confidence that movies such as this can find their audience in theaters. If it works, more streamers will likely be willing to take pricey bets with a theatrical run built into the release strategy.

If all goes well and the movie opens closer to $40 million, it could finish with $100 million or more domestically on the optimistic side of things. Let's not forget that the movie will be getting a robust release overseas as well. Also of note, critics have been absolutely effusive in praising Scorsese's latest, with the film currently carrying a stellar 97% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. You can read /Film's 9 out of 10 review from Cannes right here. All things considered, this could be a welcome winner of the fall movie season.

"Killers of the Flower Moon" hits theaters on October 20, 2023.