Can The Creator Become A Rare Big Budget Original Sci-Fi Hit At The Box Office?

Director Gareth Edwards has had a surprisingly quiet handful of years after directing two massive hits, 2014's "Godzilla" and 2016's "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story" — back to back. He hasn't directed a movie since. Now, the filmmaker is finally back at it with a big, original sci-fi film in the form of "The Creator." Edwards has been remarkably successful in the sci-fi realm, but can he deliver an original, big-budget hit in the genre? It's rare air in recent years, to be certain.

Box Office Pro currently has "The Creator" set to earn anywhere between $15 and $22 million when it opens in theaters next weekend. If it opens on the higher end of expectations, it should be able to take the number one spot, though "Saw X" is also arriving on the same day and horror has been doing very well over the last couple of years. It could prove to be a tight race. Regardless of its ultimate position on the charts, a finish in the $20 million range might present a tough road to profitability for the film. Edwards was relatively thrifty with his latest, but relative is still the keyword there.

Even though the film is massive in scope with impressive visuals and a stacked cast led by John David Washington ("Tenet"), Edwards managed to get very creative and make the movie for around $80 million. That's a fraction of what most franchise blockbusters cost. So "The Creator" doesn't need to make $1 billion to reach profitability, but it probably still needs to make somewhere around $200 million at the very least for this to be considered a worthwhile venture for Disney in the long run.

"The Creator" takes place in a future where the human race is locked in a war with advanced artificial intelligence. An ex-special forces agent named Joshua (Washington) is recruited to hunt down and kill the Creator, the elusive architect of advanced AI who has developed a mysterious weapon with the power to end the war ... and mankind itself.

Sci-fi is easily one of the most popular genres at the box office over the last 20 years, but the vast majority of that popularity has taken place within established franchises — particularly when we're talking about big-budget films. Superhero movies and "Star Wars" make up a big chunk of that, not to mention the MonsterVerse that Edwards helped start with "Godzilla." Yes, original sci-fi hits from time to time. We can look at last year's sensation "Everything Everywhere All at Once," which earned $141 million worldwide and won Best Picture at the Oscars. But it was produced for a mere $25 million. "M3GAN" ($180 million worldwide) is another example, but again, we're talking about a movie with a $12 million budget.

As far as American-produced, bigger-budget sci-fi originals go, there's 2021's "Free Guy," which took in $331 million worldwide against a $100 million budget. A performance anywhere near that would be an absolute win for Disney. But with an opening weekend in the $20 million range, "The Creator" would need absolutely incredible staying power in the weeks that follow and/or a gigantic turnout overseas. "Free Guy" benefited from Ryan Reynolds and a lack of competition as 2021's theatrical marketplace was far less crowded.

Fortunately, early reactions to the film have been downright glowing. Word of mouth could help give this movie the bump that it needs to defy the odds and become the big-budget, original sci-fi hit all involved are hoping it can be.

"The Creator" hits theaters on September 29, 2023.