Can John Kramer Help Make Saw X A Big And Bloody Box Office Hit?

Lionsgate took a pretty healthy break from the "Saw" franchise after the release of "Saw 3D," which hit theaters in 2010. But you simply can't keep a horror icon down for long. The series was revived in 2017 with "Jigsaw," which was followed up in 2021 with "Spiral: From the Book of Saw." Now, the studio is looking to hook into the nostalgic feelings many horror fans have for the Jigsaw Killer, aka John Kramer, with "Saw X." Though it is the tenth movie in the series, it is technically a prequel that takes us back nearly 20 years, with Tobin Bell returning as Jigsaw once more, this time serving as the main character. But will this nostalgic play pay off at the box office?

Box Office Pro currently has "Saw X" taking in between $10 and $15 million when it debuts next weekend. That may not be enough to give it the number one spot, as director Gareth Edwards' big new sci-fi movie "The Creator" is eyeing a debut somewhere in the $15 to $22 million range. Now, if "Saw X" overperforms and "The Creator" underperforms, that could change but, as it stands, it seems like Jigsaw is going to have to settle for the silver medal. That said, if that's the way it shakes out, this should still be a win for Lionsgate.

Director Darren Lynn Bousman's "Spiral" was the most expensive movie in the franchise to date, coming in with a $20 million price tag. Even if "Saw X" is in the same ballpark, it will still be well on its way to earning that back after its first week in theaters. Not to mention that this is one of the big Halloween season releases alongside "The Exorcist: Believer," so it figures to keep earning throughout October as spooky season ramps up. We are, after all, talking about a $1 billion franchise here.

It's not going to match the franchise-best opening of "Saw III" ($33.6 million opening/$163.8 million worldwide finish) but it should be in the same ballpark as "Jigsaw" ($16.6 million opening/$104.2 million worldwide finish), and that's enough to make it a hit. There's also a very good chance that generational nostalgia kicks in here. By bringing back Bell and putting him front-and-center once again, this movie could bring out horror fans en masse in a best-case scenario.

Yes, that's largely speculative but this is, after all, a nearly 20-year-old franchise at this point. For the sake of comparison, the same amount of time has passed between the release of the first "Saw" and "Saw X" as it had between the first "A Nightmare on Elm Street" and "Freddy vs. Jason." There is an entire generation of horror fans who grew up with these movies. "Spiral" was still contending with the pandemic and didn't have John Kramer in it. This movie doesn't have those problems. All of this to say, if I were a betting man, I would bet on the higher end of current projections — if not above them — rather than the low end.

Directed by series veteran Kevin Greutert, "Saw X" is set between the events of the first two "Saw" movies. It focuses on a sick and desperate John Kramer as he travels to Mexico for a risky and experimental medical procedure in hopes of a miracle cure for his cancer. He soon discovers that the entire operation is a scam. This gives John a newfound purpose and he returns to his work, turning the tables on the con artists by putting them through a series of his twisted games.

"Saw X" is set to hit theaters on September 29, 2023.