Can Expendables 4 Use Nostalgia And Fresh Blood To Recapture Box Office Glory?

It may be a little hard to believe but it has been just shy of a decade since Sylvester Stallone and his fellow action stars last graced the screen as "The Expendables." The original trilogy concluded rather unceremoniously in 2014 with the disappointment that was "The Expendables 3." It's been long enough that Stallone had time to revive both the "Rocky" and "Rambo" franchises while he was away from the role of mercenary Barney Ross. But everything old finds a way to become new again. Case in point, "Expendables 4" or "Expend4bles" is set to hit theaters next weekend. The question is, can it serve as enough of a course correction and bring the series back to its former glory?

As it stands, the film's financial prospects look iffy at best. According to Box Office Pro, director Scott Waugh's "Expend4ables" is currently targeting an opening weekend in the $10 to $15 million range. Even at the top end, that puts it on course for a franchise-worst debut. The previous three films opened to $34.8 million, $28.5 million, and $15.8 million, respectively. The downward trend is poised to continue. At best, we're looking at a performance on par with "Expendables 3," and that didn't go particularly well.

The third entry in the franchise – the first to go with a PG-13 rating – came with a $100 million price tag (before marketing) and finished with just $39.3 million domestically. The only saving grace was a healthy international take of $175.3 million giving it a $214.6 million global total. That's still a rough sum for a movie with a budget that large. To make matters even worse for the upcoming fourth installment, a massive $72.8 million of that total came from China. Lionsgate simply can't rely on that happening this time around.

As I've discussed quite a few times in the past couple of years, China's ability to bolster the box office for Hollywood films just doesn't exist like it did pre-pandemic. Yes, there are exceptions like "Avatar: The Way of Water," but that is indeed the exception now. "The Batman" even straight-up bombed in China. This to say, there is no guarantee that Chinese moviegoers will be there to bolster the total this time around. That, coupled with a grim forecast in North America, paints a brutal picture for this $100 million action flick.

Oddly enough, it's been long enough that "Expend4bles" is entering theaters as something of a legacy sequel. We've got the old guard with Stallone, Jason Statham, Dolph Lundgren, and more. But we've also got younger blood with fresh faces such as Megan Fox, 50 Cent, and "The Raid" star Iko Uwais. Maybe it's been just long enough for certain moviegoers to miss this franchise.

Perhaps the hope is that this can pull a "Jurassic World" on a smaller scale and deliver a huge come-up from the previous entry by offering something for both older and younger viewers. The early indicators don't point to that happening though. It also doesn't help that the cast is unable to promote the film while the actors' guild strikes in the hopes of securing a fair deal from the major Hollywood studios. To what degree that impacts the bottom line is difficult to quantify, but it certainly has an impact.

The latest "Expendables" installment sees the titular team called upon to carry out a new mission. The new team members with new styles and tactics will have to try and blend in with the old guard. One thing working in this movie's favor is the fact that it's going back to the franchise's R-rated roots. Audiences unquestionably liked that more as "The Expendables" earned $274.4 million worldwide, while "Expendables 2" finished with $314.9 million.

Maybe this one will defy expectations and slow-burn its way to modest success in North America while over-performing internationally. But the numbers before us are, at best, not ideal if that is indeed the hope. Luckily, there aren't a lot of big-budget blockbusters hitting theaters in September. This weekend's big new release is "A Haunting in Venice," which is surely going for a different audience. The only other bigger budget release is Gareth Edwards' "The Creator," but there's no reason a sci-fi film and a straight-up action flick can't draw crowds at the same time.

Aside from that, the biggest things coming down the pipeline are "Saw X" and "The Exorcist: Believer" for the horror crowd. And it would be silly to think the "Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour" movie is going to be stealing any of this movie's target audience. The point is that we're not looking at a situation where the direct competition is overly fierce. It won't run the risk of getting buried, it's just a matter of whether or not audiences care enough to actually get off the couch and head to a theater for something like this in the pandemic era.

"Expend4bles" is set to hit theaters on September 22, 2023.