Can My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 Be The Sleeper Box Office Hit Of The Fall Season?

"My Big Fat Greek Wedding" is one of the most incredible cinematic success stories of the last 25 years. Released in 2002, it was made for just $5 million and opened just ahead of the summer movie season in April, making less than $600,000 on just over 100 screens on its opening weekend. But then something amazing happened, as it became one of the strongest word-of-mouth hits in history, gaining moviegoers week, after week, after week. It eventually made an astonishing $368.7 million worldwide, making it one of the ten highest-grossing movies that year, ahead of both of Steven Spielberg's releases — "Minority Report" and "Catch Me If You Can" – as well as eventual Best Picture winner "Chicago."

Now, the franchise is back more than 20 years later to make it a trilogy, with "My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3." Original star Nia Vardalos is not only returning in front of the camera, but she's directing the finale to the trilogy as well. But can the sequel recapture some of that magic that made the original such a sensation? For various reasons, it may be tough sledding. At the same time, this movie could be one of the sleeper hits of the fall season. Not that this movie is exactly an underdog, given the franchise it's a part of, but the circumstances are markedly different this time around.

Box Office Pro currently has Focus Features' sequel taking in between $8 and $13 million on its opening weekend. That would be quite a bit lower than "My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2" in 2016, which opened to $17.8 million. Similarly, that movie faced stiff competition as it was opening against "Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice" and was meant to serve as counter-programming. It worked, as the film went on to gross $90.6 million worldwide.

In the case of the third installment, it's counter-programming once again as "The Nun II" is also opening on the same day. The movie is the latest chapter in Warner Bros.' The Conjuring Universe – a multi-billion-dollar franchise that is right next to bulletproof, with horror serving as the most reliable genre at the box office since the pandemic began. No question, "MBFGW3" is gonna have to settle for second place at best. But if the film has legs, that shouldn't be a problem. If it falls off a cliff in its second weekend? We might have a problem.

The weeks that follow bring other big movies such as "A Haunting in Venice," "Expend4bles," "Dumb Money," "Saw X," and "The Creator," among others. The key is that "Greek Wedding" is very much catering to a different audience. With "Barbie" finally running out of steam, this could be the movie that fills that void for female-skewing audiences, if all goes well. In which case, it could quietly make its money week-to-week even as these other movies arrive, much like the original did.

One of the bigger problems right now is audience awareness. With the Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild of America both striking (with no end in sight), the cast cannot promote the film. This lack of promotion has already hurt recent releases financially, and that is going to continue to be the case. Press tours are an effective way to get a movie like this on the average person's radar. Without that, this movie may suffer. Luckily, these movies aren't terribly expensive. The sequel was made for $18 million. If this one carries a similar budget, it'll eventually make its money back on VOD. But rounding out the trilogy with another theatrical hit would undoubtedly have a nicer ring to it.

"My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3" is set to hit theaters on September 8, 2023.