Can The Equalizer 3 Pull A Hat Trick For The Franchise At The Box Office?

It's been five years since Denzel Washington last graced the silver screen as Robert McCall, but the Oscar-winning actor is back in "The Equalizer 3." The film is set to hit theaters over Labor Day weekend which, in essence, will put an end to the summer movie season and help usher in fall. The question is, will Washington help get the fall season started off with a bang at the box office? Or will McCall go bust in his third and final outing?

Things, at present, are looking promising. Deadline reports that the third installment in the franchise, once again directed by Antoine Fuqua, is headed for a debut of at least $30 million across the four-day holiday weekend. Having that Monday always helps. The outlet also states that the film could go as high as $40 million if all goes well. That would be a damn decent start. That's right in line with the folks at Box Office Pro, who have the movie taking in between $27 and $34 million across through Sunday. Accounting for Monday, that would put it in the $40 million range, at the top end.

"The Equalizer 3" (watch the trailer here) picks up with Robert McCall (Washington) giving up his life as a government assassin. He has struggled to reconcile the horrific things he's done in the past and finds himself living in Southern Italy. There, he discovers his new friends are under the control of local crime bosses. Events turn deadly and McCall, naturally, ends up taking on the Mafia.

One interesting wrinkle is that the film co-stars Dakota Fanning, making this a "Man on Fire" reunion of sorts, with the two actors reuniting on screen after nearly 20 years. It's just a shame that Sony can't have Washington and Fanning making the press rounds together.

It is no secret at this point that the Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild of America Strikes, which have been going on for weeks, have impacted Hollywood greatly. Writers and, rather importantly, actors are not allowed to promote projects right now. That means no big press tour, no talk show circuit, nothing. Those sorts of things do a lot to get a movie on the average person's radar, and there's already evidence that a lack of press has hurt recent movies at the box office. It's bad for studios but, as actors writers seek a fair deal in the streaming era, the point is to be disruptive.

Right now, the numbers still look good. Audiences love Washington and these movies have been reliable hits over the past decade. 2014's "The Equalizer" made $192.9 million worldwide against a very reasonable $55 million budget. 2018's "The Equalizer 2" took in a similarly great $190.3 million worldwide. The only downside is that the budget was quite a bit higher, coming in at $77 million. Still, that was a win for Sony and that's why we're getting a third movie. One assumes/hopes Sony was wise enough to keep the budget in the same range, though it's possible that filming during the pandemic inflated things a bit more.

The only other thing to consider this time around is that "The Equalizer" has since been brought back to TV with Queen Latifah starring in the lead role. The show has been a sizable hit for CBS, with three seasons under its belt and a fourth on the way. The fact that the franchise now exists on network TV could impact opening weekend turnout, but Washington's star power and pull with moviegoers mustn't be ignored.

"The Equalizer 3" hits theaters on September 1, 2023.