Can Barbie Beat Mario As The Biggest Movie Of The Year At The Box Office?

It was another absolutely gigantic weekend for "Barbie." The Warner Bros. adaptation of Mattel's enduring doll directed by Greta Gerwig topped the box office for a third straight weekend, adding another $53 million domestically to its ever-growing total. That was enough to help Barbie and Ken join the coveted $1 billion club, becoming the 53rd movie in history to do so. If the movie never makes another dime, it would be a resounding success beyond anyone's expectations. But the movie is, in fact, going to make many more dimes. So much so that it is looking like it's going to be a tight race between "Barbie" and "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" for the biggest movie of 2023 at the box office.

As it stands, "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" is the king of the hill in '23 with $1.352 billion to its name. Universal and Illumination's take on Nintendo's beloved plumber has been a sensation and, for a time, seemed like it was all but guaranteed to finish its run as the year's biggest global grosser. Then "Barbie" came along and performed well beyond what anyone could have reasonably thought was possible. Currently, Gerwig's latest sits at $1.03 billion. So it would need around $322 million to take the crown away from Mario and Luigi.

Working in favor of "Barbie" is the fact that August doesn't have a ton of big movies that look to light up the charts. "Last Voyage of the Demeter" almost feels like it's being buried by Universal, "Strays" might do fine for an R-rated comedy but it's not a threat, and "Blue Beetle" may well continue DC's brutal streak in 2023. That may give WB and Mattel a lot of runway to keep this hot streak going.

At the same time, while "Mario" has totally fallen off the charts domestically, it has still quietly been adding to its total overseas in recent weeks. Of especially impressive note, "Mario" has made a staggering $94.8 million in Japan. That's important because "Barbie" has actually yet to open in Japan, with releases in Egypt and Kuwait also coming later this month. Though it does feel unlikely that "Barbie" will be able to do similarly big business in Japan.

Either way, looking at the chips as the lie, it appears as though it could be a race to the finish. If "Barbie" finally starts to see some signs of slowing down as a result of some movies over-performing in August, then it very well could be that "Mario" keeps the crown. On the flip side, if Margot Robbie's star power and great word of mouth continue to push this movie to record-breaking heights, it could finish closer to $1.6 billion in a best-case-scenario situation. In which case, we would have a new champion for the year and, potentially, a new entry on the list of the 10 highest-grossing movies of all time. It's the unexpected box office battle of the year, that much is certain.

Looking at the bigger picture, it's a great sign for the industry at large that two new franchises based on previously under-utilized IP are going to be standing tall above the likes of tried-and-true franchises such as "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "Fast & Furious" this year. Hollywood can't recycle the same ideas over and over again. These movies offer paths forward.

"Barbie" is in theaters now.