Could Meg 2's Brutal Critical Reaction Mean Disaster For Its Box Office?

One of the biggest, most unexpected hits of 2018 was "The Meg." Based on Steve Alten's book of the same name and starring Jason Statham, the movie earned $530 million at the global box office, seemingly birthing a new franchise for Warner Bros. After all, Alten's series does include five books to pull from. While the pandemic got in the way, the sequel is finally upon us in the form of "Meg 2: The Trench." Unfortunately for moviegoers — and more importantly Warner Bros. — its financial prospects are looking particularly grim in light of the film's critical reception.

Critics are roundly displeased with director Ben Wheatley's take on the giant killer shark genre. As of this writing, "Meg 2: The Trench" carries an abysmal 18% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, with 38 reviews counted. Yes, many more critics still have to weigh in, but that is a terrible start for a movie that carries a $130 million production budget. Warner Bros. also didn't lift the review embargo until just before the first showings of the movie were set to begin in the U.S. This suggests that they knew critics weren't going to like what Wheatley cooked up with the help of writers Jon Hoeber, Erich Hoeber, and Dean Georgaris.

The big question right now is whether or not general audiences align with critics on this one. As we've seen plenty of times in the past, critics and moviegoers can wildly disagree on a film. Just look at another 2018 blockbuster, "Venom," which was trashed by critics but widely embraced by audiences on its way to $856 million worldwide. Having said that, this is a rough way for any blockbuster to begin its run. In this case, the movie in question truly needed all the help it could get.

The big problem here is that "Meg 2" was already skating uphill in terms of its prospects at the box office. The sequel was expected to make somewhere between $22 and $27 million domestically on its opening weekend — but that was before these reviews dropped. Even at the top end, that amount is not exactly what a studio wants to see for a blockbuster that cost this much to produce. Granted, the first movie made the lion's share of its earnings, more than 72% of its total haul, from international ticket sales, so it's not as though a small domestic debut is a final nail in the coffin. But if these reviews impact potential viewers who were already on the fence, things could get ugly.

Part of the reason the movie is going to be struggling on its opening weekend, even without the negative reviews, is its heavy-hitting direct competition. "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem" just hit theaters and is earning rave reviews. To make matters worse, "Barbie" continues to be an unexpectedly huge juggernaut and very well could become the highest-grossing movie of 2023. "The Trench" is competing not only with those movies, but Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" as well. That's to say nothing of the surprise horror hit "Talk to Me" or Disney's "Haunted Mansion."

Given these obstacles, a wave of negative reviews heading into the opening weekend for "The Meg 2" is the last thing this movie needed. That having been said, it's not as though the original movie was a critical darling. "The Meg" currently holds a 46% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes to go with a 43% audience rating, so the negative reviews for the sequel might not be a silver bullet. But if 2023 has taught us anything, it's that audiences are no longer just going to turn up for a franchise film based on their love of a franchise alone.

2018 was only five years ago but, in terms of the landscape of the theatrical side of the movie business, those five years are an eternity. That year we had five movies make at least $1 billion globally. This year, it's probably only going to be two. Beyond that, we've seen franchise movies such as "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania," "Shazam! Fury of the Gods," "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny," "The Flash," and even "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" to some degree fall well short of expectations. It's not just enough to be connected to a franchise anymore, and that's certainly working against "Meg 2" here.

The other problem is that the original came out a half-decade ago. Were it not for the pandemic, it would have been more beneficial to have the follow-up hit theaters in 2020 or 2021. But that's not the way the chips fell, and the original is now a distant memory for many moviegoers.

Perhaps even more concerning is the fact that "The Meg" made a massive chunk of its money in China, $153 million to be exact. But Hollywood movies are not performing particularly well in China anymore, with the exception of "Avatar: The Way of Water." Because of this, the odds of the sequel being bailed out by overseas audiences are even more slim. Put simply, there was blood in the water before, and the critical reaction just chummed it up even more.

"Meg 2: The Trench" is in theaters now.