Can Meg 2: The Trench Be Another Giant Shark-Sized Success At The Box Office?

Back in 2018, Warner Bros. scored a massive, somewhat unexpected success with "The Meg." The adaptation of Steve Alten's book of the same name, in which Jason Statham takes on a thought-to-be-extinct megalodon, proved to be a big winner with audiences, raking in $530 million at the global box office. Now, five years and a full global pandemic later, Statham is back in the sequel, "Meg 2: The Trench," which once again hopes to become a late summer sleeper hit. This time, though, it appears competition is going to be a bigger issue.

Box Office Pro currently estimates director Ben Wheatley's big shark sequel could make anywhere between $22 and $27 million domestically on its opening weekend. That's not exactly what a studio wants to see with a big blockbuster, to say the least. While the budget has yet to be revealed, the original cost $130 million before marketing. One imagines that "The Trench" isn't any cheaper, as it has more sharks and even some dinosaurs, among other pricey CGI thrills. But to Wheatley's credit, he tried to make sure every penny of the budget can be seen on screen.

The original "Meg" topped the charts and opened to $45.4 million, also opening in early August. But the competition was less fierce. Both "Slender Man" and "BlacKkKlansman" opened that weekend, and they were never going to compete for the top spot. The biggest competition was "Mission: Impossible — Fallout," which was already in its third weekend. In 2023, "Meg 2" will be going up directly against the family-friendly "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem," which looks to be the bigger opener of the two. All the while, "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" will still be pulling in big bucks as the Barbenheimer craze is showing few signs of slowing down.

Even at the top end of projections, WB could be looking at a 40% decline on opening weekend domestically compared to the original. The good news, though, is that "The Meg" performed far better overseas than it did in North America, with the movie making $384.8 million — or 72.6% — of its total take internationally. Now, that did include an outsized $153 million from China and, as I've discussed in the past, Hollywood can no longer rely on China in the aftermath of the pandemic.

In the end, it appears as though this sequel could be a victim of circumstance. Odds are, the studio wouldn't have waited a full five years to get this in theaters were it not for Covid shutting down Hollywood for the better part of a year. The movie is no longer fresh in the minds of moviegoers, China can no longer be depended on, and we've had a pretty jam-packed summer filled with hits and misses. Competition is fierce, and this big-budget shark flick is going to need a lot of help from moviegoers around the world to become a success like its predecessor.

Wheatley, whose previous credits include "Free Fire" and "Kill List," directs from a screenplay by Dean Georgaris ("The Meg"), and Jon Hoeber & Erich Hoeber ("Transformers: Rise of the Beasts"). The cast also includes returning stars Sophia Cai and Page Kennedy, with Wu Jing ("Wolf Warrior"), Sergio Peris-Mencheta ("Rambo: Last Blood"), Skyler Samuels ("The Gifted"), and Cliff Curtis ("Avatar") rounding out the ensemble.

"Meg 2: The Trench" is set to hit theaters on August 4, 2023.