Can Disney's Haunted Mansion Scare Up Big Business At The Box Office? An Investigation

The summer movie season still has a few big titles left to try and get moviegoers out en masse. Disney has one biggie left before we head to fall in the form of "Haunted Mansion," a big-budget, live-action adaptation of the beloved theme park attraction. This is, notably, not the first time that the ride has been adapted, with Eddie Murphy headlining a film based on it 20 years ago. But this time, Disney pulled out all the stops, assembling an A-list cast and spending quite a bit of money to bring it to life. The question is, will it prove to be money well spent? If current box office tracking is to be believed, it most definitely will not be.

Before diving in, I should note that, as of this writing, official box office tracking numbers have not been revealed for "Haunted Mansion." Given the release is a week away, that is a bit odd and, quite honestly, probably not a great sign. To that end, the folks at Box Office Pro have director Justin Simien's film taking in anywhere between $22 and $32 million. It certainly doesn't help that A24's buzzy horror flick "Talk to Me" is opening that same weekend. It also really doesn't help that Disney's latest is said to carry an alarmingly large $157 million budget, though that has yet to be confirmed.

If we assume that budget figure is even close to right, this movie is going to have a rough road ahead. Coupled with at least a $100 million marketing spend, Disney would probably need to make at least $400 million worldwide (if not closer to $500 million) for this to be considered a success. With a domestic opening that low, a finish that high feels all but out of the question.

This is a topic I've hammered away at a lot this summer, but it's because it really is a big problem. Budgets for many, many movies are simply far too high. Granted, many films coming out this year have inflated costs related to the pandemic, but that can't account for all of the spending. Almost nothing can justify the $300 million that Disney and Lucasfilm spent on "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" before marketing, for example. "Haunted Mansion" appears to be another case of the studio getting in over its head with a potential franchise play.

The film centers on a woman and her son who enlist a group of so-called spiritual experts to help rid their home of supernatural squatters. The impressive ensemble includes LaKeith Stanfield, Tiffany Haddish, Owen Wilson, Danny DeVito, Rosario Dawson, Chase W. Dillon, Dan Levy, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Jared Leto. It appears talent of that caliber doesn't come cheap.

I would also not be the first person to call into question the release date that the studio opted to go with for this one. It certainly seems like a late September or early October release date to get in on the Halloween season would have been more fitting. Granted, October has "Kraven the Hunter," "Killers of the Flower Moon," "The Exorcist: Believer," "Five Nights at Freddy's," and "Saw X" on the books. That's a pretty packed schedule, but this movie could have offered a more family-friendly spooky season option to sort of counter-program against the R-rated fare in that bunch.

Interestingly, this would not be the first time that Disney released a clear-cut Halloween movie in July to disastrous results. The now-beloved "Hocus Pocus" first hit theaters in 1993 — almost exactly 30 years ago — and failed to drum up much business, topping out at $45 million worldwide. Fortunately, in that case, the movie went on to become a cult classic and even spawned a sequel last year. The difference in that case is the movie in question didn't have a blockbuster budget. Disney can't really afford to hope for a cult hit here. They need results now.

It also feels oddly like the 2003 movie all over again in some ways. Eddie Murphy's "Haunted Mansion" had a $90 million budget 20 years ago, which would be about $150 million in today's dollars. Sound familiar? That movie, riding a wave of poor reviews from critics, earned just $182 million worldwide. Granted, in the better home video market that existed 20 years ago, Disney may have been able to recover from that in some way, but it was at best a salvage job thanks to ancillary revenue streams. In today's world? A robust DVD market won't be there to save the day.

"Haunted Mansion" hits theaters on July 28, 2023.