Can Tom Cruise Save The Box Office Again With Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning? An Investigation

Tom Cruise has been one of the most consistent box office draws in the history of cinema. From "Rain Man" to "War of the Worlds" and everything in between, the man has been bringing out global audiences en masse for decades. In what has been an uneven summer at the box office so far, with several major tentpoles becoming relative disappointments, all eyes are once again on Cruise as "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" is gearing up for its theatrical release next week. The question is, can Cruise save the day once again, just as he did last year with "Top Gun: Maverick?"

As it stands, the seventh "Mission: Impossible" film is looking at a franchise-best start. Paramount Pictures is releasing it mid-week, giving director Christopher McQuarrie's latest entry in the series a couple of extra days to rake in the big bucks. The folks at Box Office Pro estimate that the film will take in between $65 and $75 million across the three-day weekend, with a possible $90 million five-day total accounting for that Wednesday and Thursday. That would be better than 2018's "Fallout," which pulled in $61.2 million domestically on its first weekend en route to a $220.1 million total in North America.

Rather crucially though, these films play like gangbusters overseas, with "Fallout" earning $556.4 million internationally for a grand total of $786.6 million. So yes, theaters in the U.S. stand to benefit greatly from Ethan Hunt's latest globetrotting action spectacle, but Cruise's appeal is worldwide and exhibitors everywhere stand to reap the rewards from this film's potential success. There is, however, one big problem that Paramount has to overcome for this movie to be considered a bonafide hit.

While these movies have never been cheap to make, "Dead Reckoning" ended up costing an absolute fortune, with the budget said to be in the $290 million range — or, to put it another way, over $100 million more than the budget for "Fallout." Much of that has to do with complications that arose thanks to filming the blockbuster during the early years of the pandemic, as it was one of the first Hollywood productions to get the job done. But that came at a cost. Coupled with a pricey marketing campaign, Paramount likely needs the film to earn $800 million worldwide, at minimum, just to break even. Tom Cruise generally gets a healthy cut of the box office, too, which means the true number is likely much higher.

That seems like a tall order, particularly in a summer where we've seen the likes of "The Flash," "Transformers: Rise of the Beasts," and "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" fall well short of expectations. In many cases, prohibitively large budgets are getting in the way. That having been said, if anyone can defy the odds and get the job done, it's Cruise.

Last year, "Top Gun: Maverick" lit the box office on fire, taking in just shy of $1.5 billion globally and becoming one of the highest-grossing movies of all time. The film was such an astonishing success that Steven Spielberg even thanked Cruise for saving movie theaters. It was far beyond even the most wildly optimistic projections. But it absolutely proved that a non-superhero blockbuster can deliver a global audience of record-breaking proportions. Now, Cruise needs to do it again. No pressure.

Tom Cruise and Paramount held onto the sequel to Cruise's '80s classic for a full two years to ensure it got a theatrical release. It proved to be a remarkably great business decision. Not only were they all rewarded financially, but "Maverick" even scored a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. It was a very important signal to the industry at large that theatrical distribution is still incredibly viable.

A large part of the success of "Maverick," it's worth noting, is credited to stellar reviews. Outstanding buzz led to great word of mouth, giving the film outlandishly long legs and bringing out moviegoers week after week. Very fortunately, "Dead Reckoning" (which has a "Part Two" due out next year) has been met with much praise from critics thus far. As of this writing, it sits at a near-perfect 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. /Film's own Chris Evangelista gave the film an 8 out of 10 in his review, which you can read right here. If audiences agree with critics on this one, the film has a real shot at pulling off the seemingly impossible.

One of the only things working against it right now (aside from the obscene budget) is the fact that Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" will be stealing coveted IMAX screens the following weekend. That certainly doesn't help matters, seeing as premium format screens charge a premium (meaning more revenue per ticket). Be that as it may, there is a not-insignificant chance that Cruise will save the day for the second year in a row.

"Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One" is set to hit theaters on July 12, 2023.